摘要
人类活动导致土地利用与覆被变化(land use and cover change,LUCC)从而影响陆地生态系统碳储能力。然而LUCC受政策的限制,从而影响碳储量的变化。本研究基于2000、2010、2020年土地利用数据,运用PLUS-InVEST模型对广西国土空间2020—2030年未来发展的3类情景的碳储情况进行预测,并通过标准椭圆差法、空间等级格局划分法、空间自相关模型分析碳储量空间分布特征,总结分区演变规律,基于此提出“分区分级”管控和要素优化对策。结果表明:①2030年3种情景下,广西国土空间碳储量仅在基于生态可持续的发展情景稳定提升,其他2类情景都大幅下降。②2020、2030年3类情景碳储量空间分布特征具有相似性,格局呈高碳储围绕式多核联动、中碳储片状镶嵌于中部、低碳储点状分布;变化趋势呈东北—西南朝向;碳储量高值区聚集于广西北部与西部区域,低值区聚集于中部及南部沿海。③2020、2030年碳储分区变化分析中,基于生态可持续的发展情景碳储核心区保持完整碳密度提升,而基于高强度的发展情景碳储变化分区形态最为剧烈,碳密度下降,基于中等强度的发展情景变化则位于另外两者中部。因此,依据碳储量空间分布特征进行分级分区管控和提出多情景要素优化对策,使碳储空间分析与国土空间规划相衔接,有助于广西碳储资源的精准保护以及为土地管理决策提供新思路,助力广西“碳中和”的实现。
Human activities drive changes in land use and land cover(LUCC),which impacts the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems.However,LUCC is influenced by policy constraints,which affects changes in carbon storage.In this study,we utilized land use data from 2000,2010,and 2020,employing the PLUS-InVEST model to project carbon storage under three future development scenarios for Guangxi s land space from 2020 to 2030.We analyzed the spatial distribution of carbon storage characteristics using the standard elliptical deviation method,the spatial hierarchical pattern delineation method,and the spatial autocorrelation model.Additionally,we summarized the evolution pattern of zoning.Building upon these insights,we propose a strategy involving“zoning-grading”control and factor optimization measures.Our results reveal the following:①By 2030,under the three scenarios,Guangxi s spatial carbon storage within the national territory will exhibit stable growth only in the ecological sustainability scenario,whereas the other two scenarios will experience a significant decline.②The spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage in the three scenarios in 2020 and 2030 are similar,displaying a pattern of high carbon storage around multiple nuclei linkage,medium carbon storage piecewise embedded in the central part,and low carbon stock pointwise distribution.The shift is toward the northeast-southwest direction.High-value carbon stock areas cluster in the northern and western regions,while low-value areas are concentrated along the central and southern coasts of Guangxi.③In the analysis of carbon storage zone changes between 2020 and 2030,the core area of carbon storage in the ecological sustainability scenario remains intact,with increased carbon density.The high intensity scenario exhibits the most pronounced zoning changes in carbon stock,with decreased carbon density,while the moderate Intensity scenario lies in between.Based on the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage,we can implemen
作者
李晓悦
覃盟琳
庞雅月
吴欣芋
蒋红波
LI Xiaoyue;QIN Menglin;PANG Yayue;WU Xinyu;JIANG Hongbo(School of Forestry,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China;Human Settlements Design and Research Center,Nanning 530004,China)
出处
《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第6期1352-1365,共14页
Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52268008)。
