摘要
为分析江西省土地利用变化特征及其对生态系统碳储量的影响,以江西省2000-2020年土地类型数据为基础,运用PLUS模型预测江西省2030年自然发展情景、生态保护情景与经济发展情景下的土地类型分布,结合InVEST模型评估江西省2000—2030年的碳储量,并基于土地利用程度和碳储量做双变量空间自相关分析。(1)三种情景中,自然发展情景和经济发展情景的土地利用变化趋势都是耕、林地下降,草地、水域和建设用地上升;生态保护情景中林地相较于2020年并无增减,草地、水域和建设用地增长也趋于放缓。(2)江西省2000年、2010年、2020年碳储量分别为1937.69×10^(6)t、1928.90×10^(6)t和1914.83×10^(6)t,处于不断减少的趋势。(3)土地利用程度综合指数与碳储量双变量Moran’s I值都为正,表明土地利用变化与碳储量的高低密切相关。林地是江西省陆地生态系统碳储量最重要的贡献土地类型,在限制林地转出的生态保护情景中,碳储量的损失风险显著降低,因此为实现“绿色江西”,需要着重保护林地,盘活利用建设用地,优化土地利用结构与布局等措施来保障。
In order to analyze the characteristics of land use change in Jiangxi Province and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage,based on the land type data of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2020,the PLUS model was used to predict the land type distribution under the natural development scenario,ecological protection scenario and economic development scenario in 2030.The carbon storage of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2030 was evaluated with InVEST model,and bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed based on land use degree and carbon storage.(1)In the three scenarios,the trend of land use change in the natural development scenario and the economic development scenario is that arable land and forest land decline,and grassland,water area and construction land increase;In the ecological protection scenario,forest land did not increase or decrease compared with 2020,and the growth of grassland,water area and construction land also tended to slow down.(2)The carbon reserves of Jiangxi Province in 2000,2010 and 2020 were 1937.69×10^(6)t,1928.90×10^(6)t and 1914.83×10^(6)t,respectively,showing a decreasing trend.(3)Both the comprehensive index of land use degree and the bivariable Moran’s I value of carbon storage are positive,indicating that land use change is closely related to the level of carbon storage.Forest land is the most important land type contributing to carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystem of Jiangxi Province.In the ecological protection scenario that restricts the transfer of forest land,the risk of carbon storage loss is significantly reduced.Therefore,in order to realize“green Jiangxi”,it is necessary to focus on protecting forest land,making active use of construction land,optimizing the structure and layout of land use and other measures to ensure.
作者
陈竹安
柳雪
CHEN Zhu’an;LIU Xue(School of Surveying and Geoinformation Engineering,East China university of Technology,Jiangxi Nanchang 330013,China;Key Laboratory of Mine Environmental Monitoring and Improving Around Poyang Lake,Ministry of Natural Resources,Jiangxi Nanchang 330013,China;Jiangxi Province Engineering Research Center of Surveying,Mapping and Geographic Information,Jiangxi Nanchang 330025,China)
出处
《上海国土资源》
2023年第4期146-153,共8页
Shanghai Land & Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金(51708098),教育部人文社会科学研究项目(22YJCZH150)。
