摘要
氢能是清洁能源发展的重要方向,在电力、工业、交通、建筑供热等领域有着广泛的应用前景,氢能的综合利用对于电力行业的低碳转型至关重要。基于支持向量回归(SVR)模型对各领域的氢能需求进行预测,利用新能源电制氢能量转换关系等效替代为电负荷;考虑不确定性对供电和氢能设备投资成本进行预测;以预测数据、初始装机情况与减排目标为输入,各类电源发展规模、装机占比、碳排放量等为输出,建立规划模型。以甘肃省为例,分析不同场景下电源结构和碳排放量变化情况,以及氢能在电力行业低碳转型过程中的影响,为电力行业的低碳转型路径规划提供参考。
Hydrogen energy is an important direction in the development of clean energy and has a wide range of application prospects in the fields of power,industry,transportation and building heating,etc.The comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy is crucial to the low-carbon transformation of the power industry.This paper forecasts the hydrogen energy demand in various fields based on the SVR model and various social data,and uses the energy conversion relationship between power consumption and hydrogen production to equivalently replace the hydrogen energy,while forecasting the investment cost of various types of equipment;the planning model is established with the forecast data,the initial installation situation and carbon emission target as inputs,and the development scale of various power sources,the proportion of installed power and carbon emission as outputs;taking Gansu Province as an example,the planning model is analysed.The impact of hydrogen energy participation in the low-carbon transformation of the power industry is explored,providing reference for the planning of the low-carbon transformation path of the power industry in Gansu Province.This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company(A Path Planning Model for Low-Carbon Transition of Regional Energy Systems under Carbon Trading Markets,No.SGTYHT/21-JS-223).
作者
张学强
董龙
王栋
ZHANG Xueqiang;DONG Long;WANG Dong(Zhangye Power Supply Company,State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company,Zhangye 734000,China)
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第12期262-272,共11页
Electric Power
基金
国网甘肃省电力公司科技项目(碳交易市场下区域能源系统低碳转型路径规划模型,SGTYHT/21-JS-223)。
关键词
氢能
低碳转型
需求预测
规划模型
hydrogen energy
low-carbon transition
demand prediction
planning model
