摘要
2021年7月20日河南郑州特大暴雨造成的地铁突发灾害是近年来为数不多的城市重大人员伤亡事件。该事件产生既有暴雨强烈、事故突发等客观原因,也包含风险意识淡薄、应急机制不健全等主观因素。本文首先遴选“郑州暴雨地铁灾害事件”演化的主要情景要素,采用情景分析法构建了该事件情景演化流程。在此基础上,基于贝叶斯网络构建了“郑州暴雨地铁灾害事件”情景推演模型。采用专家打分法计算网络节点的条件概率,利用Netica软件推算出灾害情景节点状态概率。最后,通过调试特定节点先验概率,开展不同暴雨灾害等级、应急响应行动、周围环境状态情况下人员死亡和地铁受损害的概率评估与情景推演,旨在总结经验、查找漏洞,为应对和防范“郑州暴雨地铁灾害”类似事件提供风险防范和响应对策参考。
The sudden subway disaster resulting from exceptionally heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou,Henan Province,on July 20,2021,marked one of the most significant casualties the city had experienced in recent years.This incident arose from a combination of objective factors,such as intense rainstorms and unexpected accidents,and subjective factors,including a lack of risk awareness and inadequate emergency response mechanisms.This paper begins by identifying key scenario elements within the evolution of the“Zhengzhou Rainstorm Subway Disaster Event”and constructing the scenario evolution process of the event through scenario analysis.Building upon this foundation,we create a scenario deduction model for the“Zhengzhou Rainstorm Subway Disaster Event”using Bayesian network.Expert scoring methods are employed to calculate the conditional probabilities of network nodes,and Netica software is used to compute the state probabilities of disaster scenarios nodes.Finally,we assess and deduce the probabilities of personnel fatalities and subway damage under varying levels of rainstorm disasters,different emergency response activities,and distinct surrounding environmental conditions.The objective is to extract insights,pinpoint vulnerabilities,and provide valuable references for risk prevention and response measures in anticipation of and protection against events similar to the“Zhengzhou Rainstorm Subway Disaster”.
作者
任永存
张韧
张永生
孙涵
李明
刘泉宏
许婧
REN Yongcun;ZHANG Ren;ZHANG Yongsheng;SUN Han;LI Ming;LIU Quanhong;XU Jing(College of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410000,China;Institute of Space New Meteorological Digital Disaster Reduction,Beijing 100000,China)
出处
《大气科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期904-916,共13页
Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41976188)
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2021JJ40669)。
关键词
郑州暴雨地铁灾害事件
情景分析
贝叶斯网络
灾害概率评估
Zhengzhou Rainstorm Subway Disaster Event
scenario analysis
Bayesian network
risk assessment
