摘要
依据全球流动性数量、价格的变动方向关系,识别需求、供给驱动的全球流动性冲击。运用GVAR脉冲响应分析,检验两类全球流动性冲击对主要新兴经济体的外汇市场压力和股价的影响及传导机制。结果表明:需求驱动的全球流动性收缩可能在短期内引起全球金融市场不确定性的暂时性上升并威胁新兴经济体的金融稳定;供给驱动的全球流动性收缩则可能在中长期引起全球金融市场不确定性的持续性下降并有利于新兴经济体的金融稳定。此外,中国的外汇、股票市场对两类全球流动性冲击的响应速度快于其他主要新兴经济体。鉴于此,建议新兴经济体通过宏观审慎监管和逆周期调节应对全球流动性需求冲击,通过跨周期政策规划应对全球流动性供给过度。中国还应积极推动宏观政策国际协调和国际货币体系多极化发展。
Based on the direction of changes in quantity and price of global liquidity,this paper identifies demand-driven and supply-driven global liquidity shocks.Using GVAR impulse response analysis,it examines the impacts of the two types of global liquidity shocks on the foreign exchange market pressure and stock prices of major emerging economies.The results show that demand-driven global liquidity contraction may in the short term lead to temporary increase in uncertainty of the global financial markets and undermine the financial stability of emerging economies,while supply-driven global liquidity contraction may in the long term lead to persistent decrease in uncertainty of the global financial markets and benefit the financial stability of emerging economies.Moreover,China’s foreign exchange market and stock market respond to the two types of global liquidity shocks faster than other major emerging economies.Therefore,Emerging economies should respond to global liquidity demand shocks through macro prudential regulation and countercyclical adjustment,and respond to global liquidity oversupply through cross-cyclical policy planning.China should actively promote international coordination of macroeconomic policies and the multipolar development of the international monetary system.
作者
何知仁
吴君
李巍
HE Zhi-ren;WU Jun;LI Wei(Antai College of Economics&Management,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200030,China;Department of Finance,Shanghai Business School,Shanghai 201400,China;School of Economics and Maragement,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)
出处
《经济体制改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期169-178,共10页
Reform of Economic System
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“稳慎推进人民币国际化研究”(21ZDA094)
上海交通大学现代金融研究基金项目“国际金融资本流动及风险预警”(2022)。
关键词
全球流动性需求和供给
新兴经济体金融稳定
全球金融周期
美联储加息
溢出效应
demand and supply of global liquidity
financial stability of emerging economies
global financial cycle
federal funds rate increase
spill-over effect
