摘要
利用2015—2019年乌兰察布市环境监测中心污染物浓度数据及AQI,结合同期气象观测数据,分析乌兰察布市空气质量状况,研究空气质量与气象要素间的相关性,利用逐步回归分析筛选出关键影响因子,建立不同时段AQI预报模型并比较预测效果。结果表明:造成乌兰察布市大气污染的首要污染物依次为O_(3)、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5),且它们具有明显的季节变化特征。春季沙尘高发期首要污染物为PM_(10),夏季紫外线最强季节首要污染物为O_(3),首要污染物为PM2.5的污染事件主要发生在秋末及冬季燃煤取暖期。气象要素在不同时段对AQI影响不同。各时段气温、气压、主导风向均与AQI显著相关。除冬季外,其余时段气温均与AQI呈显著正相关,气压与AQI呈显著负相关,主导风向与AQI呈显著正相关。在非采暖期,AQI与气温正相关性最显著,与气压负相关性最显著。秋季主导风向与AQI正相关性最显著。春季气压与AQI日值呈显著负相关、气温与AQI日值呈显著正相关。采暖期气压与AQI的日值呈显著负相关。从逐步回归模型预测效果总体看,夏季预测效果最好,其次是秋季、春季、冬季;非采暖期预测效果优于采暖期。该模型的预测值与监测值大体趋势拟合较准确,仅当AQI突然急剧增大的特殊情况下,数值预测准确率较低。
Based on the pollutant concentration data and AQI of Ulanqab environmental monitoring center from 2015 to 2019,combined with the meteorological observation data of the same period,the air quality status in Ulanqab City was analyzed,the correlation between air quality and meteorological elements was studied,and the key influencing factors were screened out by stepwise regression analysis,and the AQI prediction model in different periods was established and the prediction effect was compared.The results showed that the main pollutants causing air pollution in Ulanqab City were O_(3),PM_(10)and PM_(2.5),and they had obvious seasonal variation characteristics.The primary pollutant in spring is PM_(10),the strongest in summer is O_(3),and the primary pollutant is PM_(2.5),which mainly occurs during the late autumn and winter coal-fired heating periods.The influence of meteorological factors on AQI is different in different periods.Air temperature,air pressure and dominant wind direction were significantly correlated with AQI.Except in winter,the air temperature was positively correlated with AQI,air pressure was negatively correlated with AQI,and the dominant wind direction was positively correlated with AQI.In the non heating period,AQI has the most significant positive correlation with air temperature and the most significant negative correlation with air pressure.The positive correlation between the dominant wind direction in autumn and AQI was the most significant.In spring,there is a significant negative correlation between air pressure and AQI daily value,and a significant positive correlation between air temperature and AQI daily value.There was a significant negative correlation between air pressure and AQI daily value during heating period.Generally speaking,the summer prediction effect is the best,followed by autumn,spring,and winter;The prediction effect during non heating period is better than that during heating period.The predicted value of the model is more accurate than the measured value in general tr
作者
刘诗韵
云静波
姜雨萌
赵楠
Liu Shiyun;Yun Jingbo;Jiang Yumeng;Zhao Nan(Ulanqab Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia Ulanqab 012000;Inner Mongolia Meteorological Observatory,Inner Mongolia Hohhot 010051)
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2023年第2期32-38,共7页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
基金
内蒙古自治区专业气象技术服务创新团队空气污染气象影响研究项目
2022年内蒙古自治区气象局引导性创新基金资助项目(nmqxydcx202216)
乌兰察布市气象局资助项目(20180709)共同资助。
关键词
空气质量指数
气象因子
相关性分析
逐步回归分析
Air quality index
Meteorological factors
Correlation analysis
Stepwise regression analysis
