摘要
2022年2月24日,俄罗斯宣布对乌克兰采取特别军事行动。作为苏联的主要继承国,俄罗斯为什么与后苏联地区的国家爆发冲突,学界对这一问题未有定论。本文从地位信号理论出发,探寻俄罗斯对乌克兰采取“斗争型”策略的原因,试图揭示俄罗斯在获得国际和区域地位方面的机制及深层原因。俄罗斯对乌特别军事行动面对多重观众,国际和国内观众促使其转向“斗争型”策略,以寻求大国地位。国际层面,霸权国和崛起国霍布斯式的关系模式是冲突爆发的结构性前提。当一国的附属国走向自己的敌对阵营时,该国因国际地位受到挑战,会采用“斗争型”策略,同时向国际观众采用“炫耀性消费”策略,释放出高调的地位信号。国内层面,该国面对因战争而受到损失的国内观众群体,会以“受害者”的形象进行“倾向性叙述”,向受众群体释放出低调的地位信号,刺激国内的鹰派,进而促成对外采取“斗争型”策略。这一研究框架及相关结论对理解后苏联地区的冲突具有一定的启示意义。
There is no consensus in the academic community on why Russia has taken special military operation against Ukraine.Based on the status signal theory,this article explores the reasons for Russia's“struggle”strategy towards Ukraine,and tries to reveal the mechanism and deep reasons of Russia's demand for international and regional status.Russia's special military operation against Ukraine faces multiple audiences,and international and domestic audiences have prompted it to shift towards a"struggle"strategy in pursuit of great power status.At the international level,the Hobbesian relationship model between hegemonic and rising powers is a structural prerequisite for the outbreak of conflicts.When a dependent country moves towards its own hostile camp,leading to a challenge to its international status,it adopts a"struggle"strategy,releasing a high-profile status signal.At the domestic level,facing the domestic audience group that has suffered losses due to war,they will use the image of“victims”to carry out“biased narratives”,releasing low-profile status signals to the audience group,stimulating domestic hawks,and ultimately promoting the adoption of“struggle”strategies externally.This research framework and related conclusions have certain implications for understanding the conflicts in the Post-Soviet region.
作者
郑丽丽
汪金国
Zheng Lili;Wang Jinguo
出处
《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》
CSSCI
2023年第6期78-94,157,158,共19页
Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金专项项目(19VXJ032)阶段性成果
石河子大学中亚教育及人文交流研究中心项目(ZYJY2021004)阶段性成果。
关键词
地位信号
俄乌冲突
俄罗斯
后苏联地区
Status Signals
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Russia
Post-Soviet Region
