摘要
【目的】海河流域农业生产严重依赖地下水灌溉,导致地下水严重超采,形成了面积最大的地下水漏斗区。农业灌溉水源置换工程是遏制地下水超采态势的重要措施,然而,目前对该工程的定量研究相对较少。【方法】基于历史统计资料和实地调查数据,全面评价了农业灌溉水源置换工程的实施现状,采用多期双重差分方法(DID),深入分析了该工程对压采地下水和农业产出的影响,系统提出了该工程面临的挑战。【结果】结果表明:(1)2014—2022年间,河北省陆续完成了适宜区域的工程建设,通过将纯井灌区改造成渠灌区或井渠双灌区75.87万hm~2,直接减少了地下水开采量12.68亿m^(3)。(2)工程降低了项目区农业灌溉成本和劳动力投入,提高了种粮积极性,使县级层面的粮食总产量增加了1.70万t,农业增加值增加1.09亿元,第一产业增加值增加1.59亿元;(3)尽管农业灌溉水源置换工程在压采地下水和促进农业产出方面具有显著成效,但其可持续性面临多方面挑战,突出表现为地表水源短缺、配套设施不完善以及地表水水价机制不健全等问题。【结论】下一步需完善工程及其配套设施建设、加大监管力度以及建立健全地表水水价制度,逐步提升工程的运行效果和可持续性。
[Objective]Agricultural production in Haihe River Basin heavily relies on groundwater irrigation,resulting in severe groundwater overexploitation and forming the largest groundwater funnel area.Agricultural Irrigation Water Substitution Project(AIWSP) is an important measure to curb groundwater overexploitation.However,there are relatively few quantitative studies.[Methods]Based on historical statistical data and field survey data,this study comprehensively evaluates the status of AIWSP,profoundly analyzes its impact on groundwater extraction and agricultural output by adopting the multi-period Difference-in-Difference(DID) method,and systematically presents the challenges of AIWSP.[Results]The results show that:(1) Between 2014 and 2022,the suitable region of AIWSP has been successively constructed in Hebei Province.By renovating 758 700 hm~2 of pure well-irrigated areas into canal-irrigated or dual-irrigation areas,AIWSP has directly reduced groundwater extraction by 1.268 billion m^(3).(2)The project reduces irrigation costs and labor input in the project areas,boosts the enthusiasm for growing crops,and significantly increases the total grain output by 17 000 t,agricultural added value by 109 million CNY,and the primary industry added value by 159 million CNY.(3) Although AIWSP has significantly reduced groundwater extraction and increased agricultural output,its sustainability faces various challenges,such as shortage of surface water,inadequate supporting facilities,and vacant surface water pricing mechanisms.[Conclusion]Therefore,in the future,it is necessary to improve the construction of the projects and their supporting facilities,strengthen regulatory efforts,and establish a sound surface water pricing mechanism,aiming to improve the operational effectiveness and sustainability of the project.
作者
关宝珠
孙天合
王金霞
严婷婷
黄开兴
GUAN Baozhu;SUN Tianhe;WANG Jinxia;YAN Tingting;HUANG Kaixing(National School of Development,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Hebei Coordinated Innovation Center for BTH Coordinated Development,Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijiazhuang 050061,Hebei,China;School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences,China Center for Agricultural Policy,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Development Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2023年第10期147-159,共13页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71874007)
国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目(41861124006)
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200500)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(19YJC790118)
河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目-青年拔尖项目(BJ2020075)。
关键词
地下水超采
灌溉水源置换
调查研究
政策评价
双重差分方法(DID)
groundwater overexploitation
irrigation water substitution
survey research
policy evaluation
dfference-in-differ-ence(DID)method
