摘要
目的分析乐山市2017—2022年流感时空流行特征,探讨流感发病的时空聚集点,识别潜在的聚集风险,为流感聚集风险研判、预警和防控提供科学依据。方法通过国家传染病监测系统和流感监测系统获取乐山市2017—2022年流感病例、流感样病例和流感暴发疫情,运用ArcGIS 10.8进行空间聚集性分析,使用SATSCAN 9.5进行时空扫描分析,以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果2017—2022年乐山市流感发病主要集中在15岁以下人群,存在流感秋、冬季流行高峰,以市中区高发;流感病毒已转变为季节性H3型甲流和Victoria型流感病毒共同流行;回顾性时空扫描分析县区共探测到5类时空聚集区域,主要集中在五通桥区、犍为县、夹江县和沐川县等区(县、市)。全局自相关分析显示2017年乐山市各区县流感发病率空间有显著的聚类和空间负相关性,局部自相关分析显示县区级沙湾区、井研县、沐川县和夹江县存在聚集性。结论2017—2022年乐山市流感发病存在较明显的季节高发、地区高发和人群高发。且有时空聚集性,但是不同地区的聚集时段有差异,聚集时段主要集中在秋、冬季,聚集区县集中在夹江县。
Object To analyze the temporal and spatial epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Leshan City from 2017 to 2022,discuss the temporal and spatial aggregation points of influenza incidence,identify the potential aggregation risk,and to provide scientific basis for influenza aggregation risk assessment,early warning and prevention and control.Methods The influenza cases,influenza-like cases and influenza outbreaks in Leshan from 2017 to 2022 were obtained from the national infectious disease surveillance system and influenza surveillance system.The spatial clustering analysis was conducted by using ArcGIS 10.8,and the spatial and temporal scanning analysis was performed by using SATSCAN 9.5.Results From 2017 to 2022 in Leshan,influenza incidence was mainly concentrated in individuals under 15 years.There were epidemic peaks of influenza in autumn and winter,especially in central district of cities.The influenza virus has changed into a co-epidemic of seasonal H3 and Victoria influenza viruses.Retrospective spatiotemporal scanning analysis in county detected five categories of spatio-temporal gathering area,mainly concentrated in Wutongqiao,Qianwei,Jiajiang,Muchuan and other districts(county,city).Global autocorrelation analysis showed significant spatial clustering and negative spatial correlation of influenza incidence in Leshan in 2017.Local autocorrelation analysis showed that there was clustering in Shawan,Jingyan,Muchuan and Jiajiang counties.Conclusions There were obvious high incidence of influenza in season,region and key population in Leshan City from 2017 to 2022.However,there are differences in the aggregation time period of different regions.The aggregation time period is mainly concentrated in autumn and winter,and the aggregation area is concentrated in Jiajiang County.
作者
雷霄
刘川
张文华
秦瑶
张伦
魏荣杰
LEI Xiao;LIU Chuan;ZHANG Wenhua;QIN Yao;ZHANG Lun;WEI Rongjie(Leshan City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Leshan 614000,Sichuan Province,China.;Deyang City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Deyang 510600,Sichuan Province,China.;Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China.)
出处
《预防医学情报杂志》
CAS
2023年第11期1291-1298,1305,共9页
Journal of Preventive Medicine Information
基金
四川省科技厅项目(项目编号:2022YFS0641)
重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(项目编号:stc2020iscx-evhx003)
四川省疾病预防控制中心自立课题(项目编号:ZX202102)
NIH过敏与传染病预防控制项目(项目编号:5R011125842-02)。
关键词
流感
流行特征
时空扫描
空间自相关
influenza
epidemiological characteristics
space-time scanning
spatial autocorrelation
