基于计算实验的核应急撤离预测平行系统设计

Parallel System Design for Nuclear Emergency Evacuation Prediction Based on Computational Experiments

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摘要核电厂的核事故及其周边人员的应急撤离预测是一个极其复杂的过程,具有典型复杂系统的特征。为有效开展核电厂周边居民核应急撤离能力及相关技术研究,提出了基于计算实验的核应急撤离预测平行系统设计。通过对核电厂周边居民、社会和交通环境特征分析,设计了基于计算实验的、可以定性定量分析的多情景下的人工系统。构建基于Mixed Logit的核应急撤离预测效用模型,实现对多情景变量系数的标定和优化。通过计算实验模型分析可有效发现影响核应急疏散效用的主要因素,帮助解决核事故下核电厂周边居民应急撤离的复杂需求和状态关系问题,为核电厂应急撤离和预测能力研究提供新的方向。 The prediction of nuclear accidents and emergency evacuation of people in the vicinity of the nuclear power plant is an extremely complex process with the characteristics of a typical complex system.In order to effectively carry out the research on the nuclear emergency evacuation capability of the residents around nuclear power plant and related technologies,a parallel system design for nuclear emergency evacuation prediction based on computational experiments is proposed.By analyzing the characteristics of the residents,society and traffic environment around the nuclear power plant,a set of artificial system under multiple scenarios based on computational experiments that can be analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively is designed.A utility model for nuclear emergency evacuation prediction based on Mixed Logit is constructed to realize the calibration and optimization of the coefficients of the variables of the multiple scenarios.The main factors affecting the utility of nuclear emergency evacuation can be effectively found through the computational experiment model analysis,which helps to solve the complex demand and state relationship problem of emergency evacuation of the residents around the nuclear power plant under nuclear accidents,and provides new direction for the research on emergency evacuation and prediction capability of nuclear power plant.

作者徐建军陈卫华林加镇王浩张晓艳 XU Jianjun;CHEN Weihua;LIN Jiazhen;WANG Hao;ZHANG Xiaoyan(State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Power Safety Monitoring Technology and Equipment,China Nuclear Power Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518172,China)

机构地区中广核工程有限公司核电安全监控技术与装备国家重点实验室

出处《自动化仪表》 CAS 2023年第11期74-79,84,共7页 Process Automation Instrumentation

关键词核电厂计算实验核应急撤离人工系统效用模型参数标定优化预测 Nuclear power plant Computational experiments Nuclear emergency evacuation Artificial systems Utility model Parameter calibration Optimal prediction

分类号 TH-70 [机械工程]