摘要
为了有效减少西北地区农业的碳排放量,确保中国“双碳”目标如期实现,本文从农用物资投入、农作物种植,以及畜禽养殖三个方面对2011-2020年西北地区及其五省(区)的农业碳排放量进行了测度;基于测度结果,对西北地区农业碳排放的时空特征进行了分析,并运用灰色预测模型对西北地区及其五省(区)农业碳排放的达峰情况进行了预测。研究结果表明:近年来,西北地区的农业碳排放量和农业碳排放强度呈下降趋势;畜禽养殖所产生的碳排放量在西北地区农业碳排放总量中占比最大,约为56%;西北地区农业碳排放存在明显的地区差异;在2030年之前,西北地区及其中的青海、宁夏、新疆难以“碳达峰”。根据研究结果,本文提出了转变农业生产方式和改进农业机械装备、着重减少畜牧业生产所产生的碳排放量、将农业碳减排工作重点定位在青海、宁夏、新疆地区的对策建议。
In order to effectively reduce carbon emissions from agriculture in northwest of China and ensure the timely achievement of China's"dual carbon"goals,this paper measures the agricultural carbon emissions in northwest of China and its five provinces(regions)from 2011 to 2020 from three aspects:agricultural material input,crop planting,and livestock and poultry breeding.Based on the measurement results,the spatial-temporal characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in northwest of China are analyzed,and grey prediction model is used to predict the peak of agricultural carbon emissions in northwest of China and its five provinces(regions).The research results indicate that in recent years,the agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emission intensity in the northwestern region have shown a downward trend.The carbon emissions generated by livestock and poultry farming accounted for the largest proportion of the total agricultural carbon emissions in northwest of China,approximately 56%.There are significant regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions in northwest of China.Before 2030,it is difficult to achieve the"carbon peak"goal in northwest of China,including Qinghai,Ningxia,and Xinjiang.Based on the research results,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for transforming agricultural production methods and improving agricultural machinery and equipment,focusing on reducing carbon emissions generated by animal husbandry production,and positioning agricultural carbon reduction work in Qinghai,Ningxia,and Xinjiang regions.
作者
袁馨
闫述乾
YUAN Xin;YAN Shuqian(College of Finance and Economics,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)
出处
《自然资源情报》
2023年第10期30-37,共8页
Natural Resources Information
基金
甘肃省科技厅软科学研究项目(编号:13052CKA176)。
关键词
西北地区
农业碳排放
时空特征
碳达峰
灰色预测模型
northwest of China
agricultural carbon emission
temporal and spatial characteristics
carbon peak
grey prediction model
