摘要
2022年以来,受新冠疫情的影响,居民部门在新增存款快速增加的同时,表现出消费的疲软。如何促使居民部门的“超额储蓄”转化为消费和投资,并带来经济持续增长,成为国内经济关注的热点。本文梳理了新疆在本轮新增存款增长周期中呈现的特征和成因,对比历次新疆新增存款的快速增加,系统分析了本轮新增存款快速增加对新疆经济增长的影响。研究发现:作为经济欠发达地区,本轮新疆居民存款大幅增加来自于购房支出的下降、资产结构的调整以及预防性储蓄增加,即居民部门在主动积累盈余。因此,促进新疆现有“超额储蓄”的释放,需要强信心、提预期、降负担,以稳住短期内消费的修复和加快长期收入预期的改善。
Since 2022,due to the impact of the COVID-19 infection,the household sector has shown weak consumption while new deposits have increased rapidly.How to promote the“excess savings"of the residential sector into consumption and investment,and bring sustained economic growth,has become a hot spot of domestic economic attention.This paper sorts out the characteristics and causes of Xinjiang's new deposit growth in the current cycle,and systematically analyzes the impact of this round of rapid increase of new deposit on Xinjiang's economic growth.The research finds that:as an economically underdeveloped region,the substantial increase in residents'deposits in this round comes from the decline in house purchase expenditure,the adjustment of asset structure and the increase in precautionary savings,that is,the residents are actively accumulating surplus.Therefore,to promote the release of Xinjiang's existing“excess savings",we need to strengthen confidence,raise expectations,and reduce burdens,so as to stabilize the repair of consumption in the short term and accelerate the improvement of long-term income expectations.
作者
中国人民银行新疆维吾尔自治区分行课题组
张栋
梁艳
Research group of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Branch of the People's Bank of China
出处
《金融发展评论》
2023年第8期48-65,共18页
Financial Development Review
关键词
存款
超额储蓄
预防性储蓄
宏观经济
Deposit
Excess Savings
Precautionary Savings
Macroeconomics
