摘要
目的 分析2015-2021年巫山县4类主要慢性病死亡情况,比较“健康中国2030”主要慢性病早死概率的预测值与目标值,为慢性病相关防控工作提供建议。方法 以2015-01-01-2021-12-31巫山县全人群死亡监测数据为基础,采用SPSS 23.0和Excel 2010统计分析2015和2021年4类主要慢性病(心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病、糖尿病和恶性肿瘤)死亡情况和早死概率,计算巫山县2030年主要慢性病早死概率预测值。2015和2021年粗死亡率的比较采用χ^(2)检验。结果 2021年全人群4类主要慢性病合计粗死亡率高于2015年,差异有统计学意义,χ^(2)=17.420,P<0.001。2015-2021年,巫山县4类主要慢性病早死概率由15.39%下降至13.32%,下降了2.07个百分点。根据年均增长率计算,2030年巫山县4类主要慢性病早死概率为10.74%,低于目标值10.77%。2030年巫山县恶性肿瘤早死概率预测值为7.04%,与目标值4.68%差距较大。2021年4类主要慢性病早死概率及2030年早死概率预测值,男性均高于女性。2015-2021年,男性4类主要慢性病合计早死概率年均增长率高于女性。结论 按目前的年均增长率预测,巫山县4类主要慢性病早死概率可以达到“健康中国2030”的目标值,需进一步提升全人群恶性肿瘤及男性心脑血管疾病防控工作力度。
Objective To analyze the mortality of four major chronic non-communicable diseases in Wushan County from 2015to 2021,compare the predicted and target values of the probability of premature death of major chronic non-commu-nicable diseases in"Health China 2030",and provide suggestions for prevention and control of chronic non-communicable diseases.Methods Based on the population-wide mortality monitoring data of Wushan County from January 1,2015to December 31,2021,we used SPSS 23.0and Excel 2010to statistically analyze the mortality and premature mortality probabilities of four major chronic non-communicable diseases(cardiovascular diseases,chronic respiratory diseases,dia-betes and malignant tumors)in 2015and 2021,and to calculate the predicted premature mortality probabilities of major chronic non-communicable diseases in Wushan County in 2030.The χ^(2) test was used to compare the crude death rate in 2015with that in 2021.Results The crude mortality rate of four major chronic non-communicable diseases in the entire population in 2021was higher than that in 2015,and the difference was statistically significant(χ^(2)=17.420,P<0.001).The probability of premature death of four major chronic non-communicable diseases in Wushan County decreased from 15.39%to 13.32%from 2015to 2021,decreased by 2.07percentage points.Based on the average annual growth rate,the probability of premature death from four major chronic non-communicable diseases in Wushan County in 2030was 10.74%,which was lower than the target value of 10.77%.The predicted probability of premature death from malignant neoplasm in Wushan County in 2030was 7.04%,which was higher than the target value of 4.68%.The probability of premature death from four major chronic non-communicable diseases in 2021and the predicted probability of premature death in 2030were higher for males than females.From 2015to 2021,the average annual rate of decline in the probability of premature death for the four major chronic non-communicable diseases categories combined was lowe
作者
马月
梁辉
谭成勇
何成丹
MA Yue;LIANG Hui;TAN Chengyong;HE Chengdan(Department of Health Education,Nan'an District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 401336,China;Wushan County Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 404700,China)
出处
《社区医学杂志》
CAS
2023年第19期988-992,共5页
Journal Of Community Medicine
关键词
慢性病
早死概率
巫山县
“健康中国2030”
chronic non-communicable diseases
probability of early death
Wushan County
"Health China 2030"
