摘要
基于湖北华石光伏电站2022年4~9月地面辐射观测数据,评估了中国气象局风能太阳能预报系统(CMA-WSP)地面辐射产品的预报准确性。整体而言,CMA-WSP预报未来5 d的地面太阳辐射与观测的相关系数在0.85~0.91之间,第1 d的预报效果最好,随着预报时长的增加,预报准确率逐渐降低;从逐月效果来看,CMA-WSP对8~9月份地面辐射预报效果最好,5~6月份预报准确率相对较低;就日变化来看,CMA-WSP对10:00~16:00时地面辐射的预报效果相对较差,其他时段较好;CMA-WSP对地面辐射的预报存在较强季节性,春季不同时效的预报结果差异较大,夏季不同时效预报结果相对稳定,秋季预报效果最为稳定,预报结果与观测值的相关系数达0.92。总体来说,CMA-WSP系统对湖北地面辐射预报效果较好,能为湖北省光资源的短期预报提供较好的支撑。
Based on the ground radiation observation data of Hubei Huashi photovoltaic power station from April to September in 2022,the forecast accuracy of the ground radiation products of Wind Energy and Solar Energy Forecasting System of China Meteorological Administration(CMA-WSP)was evaluated.Overall,the correlation coefficient between ground solar radiation and observation in the next 5 days predicted by CMA-WSP is between 0.85 and 0.91,and the forecast effect on the first day is the best.With the increase of forecast time,the forecast accuracy gradually decreases.From the perspective of month-by-month effect,the CMA-WSP has the best effect on ground radiation forecasting in August and September,and the forecast accuracy rate in May and June is relatively low.In terms of daily changes,the CMAWSP has a relatively poor forecasting effect on ground radiation at 10:00~16:00,and is better in other periods.The prediction of ground radiation by CMA-WSP has strong seasonality.The forecast results of different times in spring are quite different,and are relatively stable in summer.The forecast effect in autumn is the most stable,and the correlation coefficient between the prediction results and observation can reach 0.92.In general,the CMA-WSP has a good effect on the ground radiation forecasting in Hubei Province,which can provide good support for the short-term forecasting of photovoltaic resources in Hubei Province.
作者
朱燕
王明
许沛华
孟丹
陈正洪
ZHU Yan;WANG Ming;XU Pei-hua;MENG Dan;CHEN Zheng-hong(Hubei Meteorological Service Center,Wuhan 430205,China;Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430205,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2023年第12期225-228,224,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
湖北省自然科学基金—气象创新发展联合基金项目(2022CFD017)
湖北省气象局科研项目(2023Q12)
湖北省自然科学基金青年项目(2023AFB543)。
