摘要
构建包含中间投入嵌套的三部门模型,理论分析结果显示老龄化对劳动节约型技术创新存在倒逼研发投入、技术应用干中学和人力资本积累三种影响路径。选取中国2003—2021年机器人专利数据进行实证检验,结果表明人口老龄化整体上对劳动节约型技术创新存在正向的促进作用,在一系列稳健性和安慰剂检验下结论依然显著。中介效应检验发现,三种影响路径均显著存在,并且人力资本积累效应最强,研发投入倒逼效应次之,技术应用干中学效应较弱。异质性研究发现,工业男女性别比更低、中西部地区的老龄化倒逼创新效应更强。进一步匹配微观工业企业数据发现,在老龄化趋势影响下,机器人创新企业的研发要素投入显著增加。
Since the reform and opening up,China has played an indispensable role as the global epicenter of manufacturing,capitalizing on its comparative advantage in labor to propel itself towards an era of rapid economic expansion.However,according to the resource curse theory,an excessive reliance on labor quantity may result in insufficient investments in human capital and innovation,consequently hindering the progress of innovation,especially in labor-saving technologies.China is experiencing a continuous aging of population,with gradually diminishing demographic dividend.Can this demographic shift serve as an inducement for China to innovate in labor-saving technologies?This paper constructs a three-sector model with nested intermediate inputs.By employing the optimization approach,it examines the impact of the aging population trend on innovation in labor-saving technologies and analyzes potential pathways.This paper also collects Chinas patent data related to robotics from 2003 to 2021,and conducts empirical analyses by matching the data with provincial-level economic variables in China.Additionally,it uses a mediation analysis method in the form of the three-step method to analyze the influencing mechanisms.The solution of the theoretical model reveals three distinct impact pathways of aging on innovation in labor-saving technologies:driving R&D investment,fostering learning-by-doing in technology application,and accumulating human capital.Through empirical testing,it is found that population aging positively promotes innovation in laborsaving technologies.This conclusion remains valid in a series of robustness and placebo tests.Mediation analysis demonstrates that all three impact pathways analyzed in the theoretical model are significant.The effect of human capital accumulation is the strongest,followed by the impact of R&D investment,while the impact of learning-bydoing effect is comparatively weaker.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that regions with a lower gender ratio in industrial employment and those situate
作者
魏嘉辉
顾乃华
WEI Jiahui;GU Naihua(Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering,Guangzhou 510230;Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632)
出处
《首都经济贸易大学学报》
北大核心
2023年第6期48-62,共15页
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
基金
广东省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“工业智能化背景下广东高质量就业的机制与对策研究”(GD23YYJ31)。
关键词
劳动节约型技术创新
人口老龄化
机器人专利
倒逼效应
干中学
人力资本
innovation in labor-saving technology
population aging
robot-related patent
driving effect
learning by doing
human capital
