摘要
[目的]分析1990—2019年全球甲状腺癌(TC)发病现状和变化趋势,并预测未来TC发病情况。[方法]从联合国开发计划署收集人类发展指数(HDI)数据,利用2019全球疾病负担数据库(GBD 2019),按地理、社会人口指数(SDI)、国家和地区、性别、年龄收集1990—2019年全球TC发病数据,计算年估计百分比变化(EAPC)来分析发病趋势变化,通过Pearson相关分析研究年龄标化发病率(ASIR)与HDI的相关性。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型预测2020—2030年发病情况。[结果]1990—2019年全球ASIR呈上升趋势(EAPC=1.25,95%CI:1.12~1.37)。19个区域呈上升趋势,增幅最大的是澳大拉西亚(Australasia)(EAPC=2.72,95%CI:2.37~3.07)。5类SDI国家和地区发病数与ASIR均呈上升趋势,其中,中SDI国家和地区发病数与ASIR上升最快(EAPC=2.36,95%CI:2.28~2.44),2019年高SDI国家和地区的发病数、ASIR最高,分别为6.84万例、4.59/10万。165个国家和地区ASIR呈上升趋势,沙特阿拉伯增长幅度最大(EAPC=5.67,95%CI:5.37~5.98),中国2019年发病数最多,为3.91万例。男性ASIR较女性上升更多,EAPC分别为1.89(95%CI:1.77~2.02)、0.98(95%CI:0.85~1.12)。TC粗发病率在低年龄组时已逐步上升,发病率顶峰为75~79岁年龄组,为9.35/10万;50~54岁组发病数最多,为2.75万例。2019年不同国家和地区的ASIR与其HDI呈正相关(r=0.62,P<0.001)。预测2030年全球TC的ASIR、发病数分别将达3.26/10万、33.13万例。[结论]2019年女性、高SDI国家和地区、中老年人群ASIR和发病数更高,但过去30年男性、中SDI国家和地区上升更快。1990—2019年5类SDI、19个区域、165个国家和地区ASIR均呈上升趋势,预测2020—2030年全球TC发病数和ASIR可能进一步上升。应密切关注TC防控,加强对高危人群的保护。
[Purpose]To analyze the worldwide incidence of thyroid cancer(TC)from 1990 to 2019,and predict the trends from 2020 to 2030.[Methods]Human development index(HDI)data were collected from the United Nations Development Programme and global TC incidence data were col-lected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Database(GBD 2019)by geography,socio-demo-graphic index(SDI),country and region,gender,and age during 1990—2019.The estimated an-nual percentage change(EAPC)was calculated for incidence trend.Pearson correlation was used to analyze the correlation between age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and HDI.A Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict trends of incidence.[Results]The global ASIR in-creased from 1990 to 2019(EAPC=1.25,95%CI:1.12~1.37).There were 19 regions in the world showing an upward trend with the fastest growth in Australasia(EAPC=2.72,95%CI:2.37~3.07).Both incident number and ASIR in all five types of SDI showed an increasing trend,and the countries and regions with middle SDI showed the fastest increasing trend(EAPC=2.36,95%CI:2.28~2.44).The incident number(6.84×10^(4))and ASIR(4.59/10^(5))in countries and regions with high SDI were the highest in 2019.Among 165 countries and regions,ASIR showed an increasing trend,and Saudi Arabia showed the fastest increase(EAPC=5.67,95%CI:5.37~5.98).China had the highest incident number(3.91×10^(4)cases in 2019).The ASIR in male increased faster than that in female with EAPC of 1.89(95%CI:1.77~2.02)and 0.98(95%CI:0.85~1.12),respectively.The crude incidence rate of TC increased gradually in the lower age group,and the peak incidence rate was 9.35/10^(5)in the age group of 75~79,and the highest incident number was 2.75×10^(4)cases in the age group of 50~54.The ASIR was positively correlated with HDI in different countries and regions(r=0.62,P<0.001).It is predicted that in 2030,the ASIR and incident number of TC worldwide would reach 3.26/10^(5)and 33.13×10^(4)cases,respectively.[Conclusion]The study shows that the higher incident number
作者
姚承志
张译匀
吴霞
王烟
让蔚清
熊文婧
YAO Chengzhi;ZHANG Yiyun;WU Xia;WANG Yan;RANG Weiqing;XIONG Wenjing(School of Public Health,University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China;The First Affiliated Hospital of University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China)
出处
《中国肿瘤》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第11期848-855,共8页
China Cancer
基金
国家自然科学基金(81673107)。
关键词
甲状腺癌
全球疾病负担
发病
趋势分析
thyroid cancer
Global Burden of Disease
incidence
trend analysis
