摘要
本文基于灰色预测法,对民族地区减排潜力进行预测评估和动态分析,指出民族地区实现碳达峰目标的挑战和机遇,并据此提出民族地区碳达峰目标的推进方案。研究发现:(1)多数省区碳排放总量预计将呈现持续性增长态势,其中内蒙古、新疆增幅较大。(2)多数省区碳排放强度呈下降趋势且能在2030年前满足碳达峰的强度要求,仅内蒙古和新疆出现小幅上涨,由此说明,民族地区的排放效率不断提高,排放量总量增加为经济发展导致的能源需求拉动。(3)所有省区均存在能源输出且化石能源初始比例较高,因此多数省区呈现较高排放转出状态。但随着清洁能源跨区输出,转出能源增加但转出碳排放逐步下降。(4)内蒙古和新疆碳汇来源广泛且数量可观,广西、贵州和云南森林碳汇丰富,青海湿地碳汇突出,宁夏碳汇总量较低。针对碳达峰问题,民族地区面临能源需求尚未达峰,碳转移问题严重,生态红利释放不足等诸多挑战。建议民族地区立足比较优势,从新能源跨区合作、生态固碳增汇和低碳零碳产业集约化发展等方面入手,为如期实现碳达峰目标做出应有的贡献。
Based on the gray prediction method,this paper conducts predictive evaluation and dynamic analysis of the challenges and potentials of achieving the carbon peak goal in ethnic areas,and accordingly proposes a plan to promote the goal of carbon peaking in those areas.The results show that:(1)The total carbon emissions of most provinces and autonomous regions are expected to show a sustained growth trend,with large increases in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang;(2)The carbon emission intensity of most provinces and autonomous regions is on a downward trend and can meet the carbon peak intensity requirements before 2030.Only Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have increased slightly,indicating that the emission efficiency of ethnic areas is constantly increasing,and the increase in total emissions is driven by energy demand caused by economic development;(3)All provinces and regions have a high energy export and the initial proportion of fossil energy is also high,so most of them are in a state of high emission transfer.However,with the cross-regional export of clean energy,the energy transfer increases while the carbon emission gradually decreases.(4)Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have a wide range of carbon sinks,Guangxi,Guizhou and Yunnan are rich in forest carbon sinks,Qinghai wetlands have abundant carbon sinks,and Ningxia has a low carbon pool;(5)In view of the carbon peaking issue,ethnic regions are facing many challenges.For instance,energy demand has not yet peaked,carbon transfer problems are serious,and ecological dividend release is insufficient.It is suggested that ethnic regions,based on their comparative advantages,strengthen cross-regional cooperations of new energy,boost the ecosystems capacity of carbon sequestration and sink,and promote intensive development of low-carbon and zerocarbon industries,so as to make contribution to the realization of the goal of carbon peaking as scheduled.
出处
《民族研究》
北大核心
2023年第4期20-30,M0002,共12页
Ethno-National Studies
基金
国家民委科研项目“乡村振兴战略背景下中部山地民族地区发展模式与发展战略研究”(项目编号:2018-GME-014)
中央高校基本科研项目“环境规制影响欠发达地区绿色发展研究:作用机理、效应测度与政策路径”(项目编号:2722019PY028)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
民族地区
碳达峰
减排潜力
碳汇
ethnic areas
carbon peaking
potential of carbon emission reduction
carbon sink.
