摘要
极端降雨可能引发城市严重内涝,安全转移受灾群众是政府综合应急管理的重要工作。从平灾结合角度出发,提出了一种针对城市内涝的灾民转移安置两阶段规划方法。首先,考虑交通、高程、坡度、设施类型等因素,筛选一批城市公共设施作为备选的短期避难场所,并针对不同设施类型计算其容纳能力,结合内涝风险图提取淹没区域,采用面积比法计算待转移人数,考虑路段渍水对通行的影响以获取绕行路线距离;其次,以启用最少数量的避难场所和最短的灾民转移距离为目标,建立灾民安置转移多目标优化模型。选取武汉市汉阳区内涝场景,考虑不同目标优先级,获取灾民安置转移方案。结果表明:以集中安置为主要目标时,避难设施启用总数较少且饱和率高;以高效转移为主要目标时,安置距离并未显著降低,但安置灾民较为分散。
Extreme precipitation may cause severe waterlogging in cities.However,most of the existing urban seismic refuges for evacuation are open areas such as parks or underground shelters,and the elevation and spatial form of which can hardly meet the resettlement needs of the affected people.Moreover,due to the shortage of land in the central urban area,it is difficult to build special refuge facilities for waterlogging disasters.This paper presents a two-stage planning method for the transfer and resettlement of victims in the waterlogging risk areas,from the perspective of combining normal times and disaster times.Firstly,taking traffic,elevation,slope,and facility types into account,a number of urban public facilities as alternative shortterm shelters are selected and different calculation methods are used to estimate their capacity.Then an optimization model for the transfer and resettlement of victims is established,taking the minimum number of shelters and the shortest transfer distance of the victims as the objectives.In this paper,Hanyang District of Wuhan City is selected as the case study area.Specifically,GIS spatial analysis methods are used to determine alternative shelters and their capacity,and the inundation area is extracted by the waterlogging risk map.Based on the results of the aforementioned analyses,the number of people to be transferred can be calculated using the area ratio method.Furthermore,the impact of waterlogged road sections on vehicle traffic is considered to obtain the traffic distance.The Gurobi Solver is utilized to obtain optimized transfer and resettlement schemes in situations with varied target priorities.The results show that fewer shelters need to be enabled and the occupancy rate is high when centralized resettlement is the primary objective.Correspondingly,when high efficiency is the primary objective,the resettlement distance is not significantly reduced but the distribution of disaster victims is relatively scattered.
作者
王维莉
王卓
WANG Weili;WANG Zhuo(Logistics Research Center,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期3689-3696,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71904116)
上海市科技创新行动计划项目(19DZ1209600)。
关键词
公共安全
避难设施选址
灾民安置
平灾结合
城市内涝
ArcGIS软件
public safety
site selection of emergency shelters
victim resettlement
combination of normal times and disaster time
urban waterlogging
ArcGIS software
