摘要
政府在面临大规模传染疫情应急管理时存在应对能力不足的情形,这与没有开展关键因素识别有关。结合新冠疫情,提出基于前景理论的大规模传染疫情应急管理决策方法。该方法将专家给出的决策矩阵作为参考点,将应急管理实际参与方给出的决策矩阵作为决策评价点,其中决策评价点是在充分考虑评价者的决策心理和知识结构基础上,采用实数和区间数构建的混合评价信息,然后利用二元语义将混合评价信息进行转化,保障评价信息的一致性,接着建立前景初始直接关联矩阵,通过决策步骤识别出五个关键因素,同时比较了专家评价者、所有评价方综合和新决策方法的决策结果,提出了健全疫情响应直报机制、增强防疫物资储备能力、提高疫情物资调度能力、提高应急决策指挥能力和加强基层网格化防控能力的决策建议。
the government has insufficient emergency response capacity in the face of large-scale epidemic,which is related to the lack of key factor identification.This study puts forward the decision-making method of identifying key factors of large-scale epidemic emergency management based on prospect theory.This method takes expert decision matrix as a reference point,and takes emergency management participants decision matrix as decision evaluation point.The decision evaluation point considers the decision psychology and knowledge structure of the evaluator,and adopts the evaluation values of real numbers and interval numbers.The decisionmaking process is transformed by binary semantic sets to ensure the consistency of information.Then,the initial direct correlation matrix of prospect theory is established,and 5 key facts are obtained by decision steps.Moreover,the decision-making results are compared with the method based on the experts’evaluation,expertise and emergency management participants’evaluation,the new decision-making method.Finally,this study puts forward decision-making suggestions on perfecting the direct reporting mechanism of epidemic response,enhancing the reserve capacity of materials,improving the dispatching capacity of materials,improv⁃ing the emergency decision-making and command capacity,and strengthening the grid prevention and control capacity at the grass-roots level.
作者
金卫健
徐浩
黄传峰
蒋诚智
JIN Wei-jian;XU Hao;HUANG Chuan-feng;JIANG Cheng-zhi(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China)
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期225-233,共9页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
江苏省社会科学基金资助项目(22GLB003)
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2022SJZD014,2020SJZDA069)
南京工程学院产业经济与创新管理研究院开放基金资助项目(JGKB202102)。
