摘要
第二十届中央财经委员会第一次会议明确强调,必须“以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化”。研究发现,“人口规模巨大的现代化”的特征,并不意味着中国式现代化必须继续维持人口数量的巨大规模;中国人口负增长是市场发挥决定作用的必然结果,激励生育的政策效应之所以呈现递减趋势,根本原因在于更深层次的经济制度安排;人口数量的增长并不等价于生产力的提高,对人口增速下降作出简单的负面评价并不可取;担忧人口红利消失会给中国社会经济发展带来负面影响的观点是缺乏说服力的;“老龄”以及“老龄化”是一个动态概念,应当辩证分析人口老龄化的经济社会效应;中国式现代化若要适应人工智能时代的发展趋势,就必须将人口红利逐渐转变为人才红利。如果仍然沿用传统思维方式来看待人口格局,就会忽略人口红利向人才红利转变的必要性和迫切性,错过世界百年未有之大变局的重大历史机遇。
The first meeting of the 20th CPC Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs clearly emphasized that it is necessary to"support Chinese modernization with high-quality population development".It is found that the characteristics of"modernization with a huge population"do not mean that Chinese modernization must continue to maintain the huge population.The negative population growth in China is the inevitable result of the decisive role played by the market,and the reason why the policy effect of encouraging fertility shows a decreasing trend lies in the deeper economic system arrangement.The increase of population is not equivalent to the improvement of productivity,so it is not advisable to make a simple negative evaluation of the decline in population growth rate.It is unconvincing to worry that the disappearance of demographic dividend will have a negative impact on China's social and economic development."Aging population"and"population aging"are dynamic concepts,and the economic and social effects of population aging should be dialectically analyzed.If Chinese modernization wants to adapt to the development trend of artificial intelligence era,it must gradually transform demographic dividend into talent dividend.If we still follow the traditional way of thinking to look at population pattern,we will ignore the necessity and urgency of the transition from demographic dividend to talent dividend,and miss the great historical opportunity that global changes of a magnitude unseen in a century.
作者
赵晓磊
赵磊
Zhao Xiaolei;Zhao Lei(International Business School,Beijing Foreign Studies University,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu Sichuan 611130,China)
出处
《河北经贸大学学报》
北大核心
2023年第6期10-17,共8页
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business
关键词
中国式现代化
人口负增长
人口红利
人才红利
人工智能
Chinese modernization
negative population growth
demographic dividend
talent dividend
artificial intelligence
