摘要
气温作为影响农业生产的关键因素,探索极端气温与农业碳排放之间的关系,对加速实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。基于2011-2021年长江经济带110个地级市的面板数据,在测算极端气温指数和农业碳排放的基础上,运用双向固定效应模型实证检验了极端气温对农业碳排放的影响、异质性以及作用渠道。研究表明:极端气温能够显著抑制长江经济带农业碳排放的增长,其中,极端低温影响农业碳排放的过程中存在环境污染程度单一门槛,即当可吸入细颗粒物年平均浓度高于45微克/立方米时,极端低温对农业碳排放的抑制作用呈现出边际递减的特征;采用替换被解释变量、解释变量与分样本检验等方式进行再估计,研究结论仍然稳健;异质性分析发现,极端气温对农业碳排放的抑制效应在长江经济带中游地区、农业发达和中等地区更加显著;进一步研究发现,农业技术进步是极端气温影响长江经济带农业碳排放的作用渠道。因此,需要以农业技术进步推进农业碳减排,减少农用化学品投入引致的碳排放,因地制宜发展特色低碳农业生产。
Temperature is a key factor affecting agricultural production.Exploring the relationship between extreme temperature and agricultural carbon emissions is of great significance for accelerating the achievement of emission peak and carbon neutrality and sustainable development.Based on the panel data of 110 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the bidirectional fixed effect model was used to empirically test the impact,heterogeneity and functionary channel of extreme temperature on agricultural carbon emissions on the basis of measuring the extreme temperature index and the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions.The results shows that extreme temperature can significantly inhibit the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.There is a single threshold for environmental pollution in the process of extreme low temperature affecting agricultural carbon emissions,where the inhibitory effect of extreme cold on agricultural carbon emissions presents a marginal decline when the annual average concentration of inhalable particulate matter is higher than 45 micrograms per cubic meter.The research conclusions remain robust when using methods such as replacing explained variables,explaining variables and sub-sample test for re-estimation.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the inhibitory effect of extreme temperature on agricultural carbon emissions was more significant in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,as well as in regions with developed and medium agriculture.Further research finds that agricultural technology progress is the functionary channel through which extreme temperature affects agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Therefore,it is necessary to promote agricultural carbon emission reduction through agricultural technological progress,reduce carbon emissions caused by agricultural chemical input,and develop characteristic low-carbon agricultural production according to local conditions.
作者
覃朝晖
潘昱辰
丁志国
QIN Zhaohui;PAN Yuchen;DING Zhiguo
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
北大核心
2023年第6期70-82,共13页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“脱贫民族地区实现农业农村现代化的机制与路径研究”(23CMZ021)
国家社会科学基金项目“脱贫民族地区要素配置与乡村产业振兴耦合机制研究”(21BMZ138)。
关键词
极端气温
农业碳排放
农业技术进步
长江经济带
extreme temperature
agricultural carbon emissions
agricultural technology progress
Yangtze River economic belt
