摘要
回顾总结了现有的越浪预测方法和目前开展的越浪风险预警研究工作。结果表明:越浪预测工具应用最广泛的是基于物理模型试验建立的各种经验计算公式;近年来,数值模拟和人工神经网络等机器学习算法也得到越来越多的发展和应用;此外,越浪风险量化分析和评估也逐渐成为越浪研究的重点。最后展望提出了加强越浪预报和建立风险预警系统对沿海风险管理的重要性。
This paper reviews available methods for prediction of wave overtopping and researches on early warning of wave overtopping risk.In general,various empirical formulae based on physical model tests are widely used to predict the mean overtopping discharge.In recent years,numerical modeling and machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks have also been developed and used.Besides,quantitative analysis and assessment of overtopping risk have also been paid more attention.Finally,this paper proposes the importance of establishing overtopping forecast and risk early warning system in coastal risk management.
作者
李静
张则飞
丁雪霖
朱永
夏冬冬
LI Jing;ZHANG Zefei;DING Xuelin;ZHU Yong;XIA Dongdong(National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100081,China;Marine Academy of Zhejiang Provinc,Hangzhou 310012,China;Key Laboratory of Ocean Space Resource Management Technology,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hangzhou 310012,China)
出处
《海洋预报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期98-106,共9页
Marine Forecasts
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3105100)
浙江省财政预算项目(浙江海平面上升影响分析)。
关键词
越浪量
越浪预测
风险分析
预警系统
overtopping discharge
overtopping prediction
risk analysis
early warning system
