摘要
基于茶角胸叶甲(Basilepta melanopus Lefèvre)截至2020年底的63个有效分布点和22个环境变量,分析筛选出影响茶角胸叶甲分布的8个重要环境变量,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件,对茶角胸叶甲2021—2100年气候条件下的适生区进行预测。结果表明:MaxEnt模型的受试者工作曲线面积(AUC)达0.992;在目前气候条件下,茶角胸叶甲潜在的适生区总面积为6.69×10^(5)km^(2),主要位于中国南部和东南部地区,除已报道发生过的地区外,还包括湖北、安徽、浙江、江苏和中国台湾;影响茶角胸叶甲潜在适生区分布的重要环境因子主要包括最冷季降水量、坡向和平均气温年较差,其中最冷季降水量是影响茶角胸叶甲潜在适生区分布范围的最关键环境变量;在SSP126和SSP245情景下,茶角胸叶甲的总适生区面积在2061—2080年间达到峰值后下降;在SSP370情景下,茶角胸叶甲的总适生区面积在2041—2060年间达到峰值后下降;在SSP585情景下,茶角胸叶甲总适生区面积持续上升。总体来看,茶角胸叶甲的适生区中心主要向西、向北和高纬度等内陆地区转移。
By the end of 2020,based on 63 effective distribution records of the Basilepta melanopu(B.melanopus)in China and 22 environmental variables,eight environmental limiting factors affecting the distribution of B.melanopus were determined.The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential adaptive areas of B.melanopus(from 2021 to 2100)under current and future climatic conditions in China.The results show that the receiver operating curve area(AUC)is 0.992 in MaxEnt model.At present climate conditions,the total area of adaptive area is 6.69×10^(5)km^(2),mainly located in the south and southeast of China.Besides the areas that had been infected by B.melanopus,its adaptive region includes Hubei,Anhui,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,and Taiwan provinces.The main environmental factors affecting the potential geographical distribution range of B.melanopus were precipitation of the coldest quarter,slope,and annual range of mean temperature.The precipitation of the coldest quarter was the most critical environmental variable affecting the potential adaptive areas range of B.melanopus.In scenarios SSP126 and SSP245,the total adaptive area of B.melanopus peaks between 2061 and 2080 and then declines.In scenario SSP370,the total adaptive area of B.melanopus peaks between 2041 and 2060 and then declines.However,in scenario SSP585,the total adaptive area of B.melanopus increases insistently.Overall,the center of adaptive areas predominantly shifts towards western,northern,and high-latitude inland areas.
作者
杨艺帅
杨学宇
王玉生
胡秋龙
史子涵
吉进军
廖尹俊
谭琳
YANG Yishuai;YANG Xueyu;WANG Yusheng;HU Qiulong;SHI Zihan;JI Jinjun;LIAO Yinjun;TAN Lin(College of Plant Protection,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha,Hunan 410128,China;Key Laboratory of Tea Science of Ministry of Education,Changsha,Hunan 410128,China;College of Horticulture,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha,Hunan 410128,China;Hunan Tea Group Corporation Limited,Changsha,Hunan 410126,China;JangHo Architecture,Northeastern University,Shenyang,Liaoning 110819,China)
出处
《湖南农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期581-587,共7页
Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0202006-04)。
关键词
茶角胸叶甲
最大熵模型
适生区预测
气候变化情景
Basilepta melanopus
maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)
adaptive area prediction
climate change scenarios
