摘要
使用贝叶斯框架下的MCMC方法和TVP-VAR-SV模型研究了税制结构对居民消费支出的动态冲击效应。结果表明,商品税、所得税和财产税均对居民消费支出影响具有显著的时变特征,其中财产税对居民消费支出影响的时变性相对较弱。从不同时点的脉冲响应来看,商品税和所得税对居民消费支出的影响大于财产税对居民消费支出的影响,商品税和财产税对于居民消费支出冲击的脉冲响应表现出正向影响,而所得税对于居民消费支出冲击的脉冲响应表现出负向影响,且长期的脉冲响应的影响大于短期和中期。因此,文章提出了适当提高直接税比重,完善所得税征收政策,适时开征遗产税、赠与税和绿色税收的政策建议。
Adopting the MCMC method and TVP-VAR-SV model under the Bayesian framework,this paper studies the dynamic impact effect of tax structure on household consumption expenditure.The results show that the effects of commodity tax,income tax and property tax on the household consumption expenditure have significant time-varying characteristics,and the effects of property tax on the household consumption expenditure show relatively weak time-varying characteristic.According to the impulse responses at different time points,the impact of commodity tax and income tax on household consumption expenditure is greater than that of property tax on household consumption expenditure.The impulse responses of commodity tax and property tax on household consumption expenditure show the positive impact,while the impulse response of income tax on household consumption expenditure shows the negative impact.And the impact of long-term impulse response is greater than that of short-term and medium-term responses.Therefore,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to appropriately increase the proportion of direct tax,improve the income tax collection policy,and timely levy the inheritance tax,gift tax and green tax.
作者
刘妍琼
章爱文
LIU Yan-qiong;ZHANG Ai-wen(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Hunan First Normal University,Changsha 410205,China;School of Business,Hunan First Normal University,Changsha 410205,China)
出处
《海南大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
2023年第6期188-195,共8页
Journal of Hainan University （Humanities & Social Sciences）
基金
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2021JJ30175)
湖南省大学生创新创业项目(202112034002)。
