摘要
为定量分析镇江港PM_(2.5)浓度时间序列的内在演化特征,以镇江港2019—2020年的205667组PM_(2.5)时均浓度数据为基础,采用基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)的多重分形去趋势波动分析(MFDFA)算法进行研究.结果表明:各监测点PM_(2.5)日均浓度演化均具有显著的长期持续性特征,现阶段PM_(2.5)浓度升高可能会导致未来一段时间内PM_(2.5)浓度的持续升高,不同监测点PM_(2.5)浓度的多重分形谱参数存在差异性,多重分形特征强的区域应侧重即时性防治,反之则应注重长期性监管;运用自组织临界性理论,发现15个监测点PM_(2.5)浓度波动呈现幂律分布特征,符合自组织临界性特征,港口系统存在发生大气高污染的风险.
To quantitatively analyze the internal evolution characteristics of PM_(2.5)time series in Zhenjiang Port,taking 205667 PM_(2.5)hour concentration series in Zhenjiang port from 2019 to 2020 as basic data,the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis(MFDFA)method based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)was used.The results show that the evolution of PM_(2.5)concentration at each monitoring point has significant long-term persistence characteristics.The rise of PM_(2.5)concentration at present stage may lead to the rise of PM_(2.5)concentration in the future.The multifractal spectrum parameters of PM_(2.5)concentration at different monitoring points are different.Areas with strong multifractal characteristics should be focused on immediate prevention and control,on the contrary,long-term supervision should be paid attention to.According to the theory of self-organized criticality,the fluctuation of PM_(2.5)concentration at 15 monitoring points presents the characteristics of power-law distribution,which is in line with the self-organized criticality.
作者
郑敏学
毛静
孙智灏
朱龙
李志坚
居珍
黄爱国
ZHENG Minxue;MAO Jing;SUN Zhihao;ZHU Long;LI Zhijian;JU Zhen;HUANG Aiguo(School of Safety and Environmental Engineering,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212013,China;Zhenjiang Port Group Co.,Ltd.,Zhenjiang,Jiangsu 212001,China)
出处
《江苏大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第6期738-744,共7页
Journal of Jiangsu University：Natural Science Edition
关键词
PM_(2.5)
镇江港
集合经验模态分解
多重分形去趋势波动分析
自组织临界理论
PM_(2.5)
Zhenjiang Port
ensemble empirical mode decomposition
multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis
theory of self-organized criticality
