摘要
构建“稻谷—大米”价值链,对“稻谷—大米”价值链上价格形成过程进行描述性统计分析,采用Johansen检验、格兰杰因果检验方法及VEC模型方法,对价值链上主要环节价格联系及其主要影响因素进行实证研究。研究表明,稻谷收购市场和大米零售市场存在长期均衡状态,稻谷收购市场和稻谷国内期货市场存在长期均衡状态,但短期价格传导效率较低;“稻谷—大米”价值链上产生的价格增值主要集中在大米零售、大米加工和农户稻谷出售环节;所谓“稻强米弱”造成大米加工企业普遍经营不善的说法不能得到必要证据支持;过于强调国有粮库“顺价销售”出库大米不利于实现以粮食自产为基础的粮食安全目标。最后提出继续实施稻谷最低收购价格政策和以实现粮食自产为基础的粮食安全目标等政策建议。
Build a theoretical model of"rice-rice"value chain,make a descriptive statistical analysis on the structure of price appreciation income in the main links of the"rice-rice"value chain,and conduct an empirical study on the price linkage in the main links of the value chain by using Johansen test,Granger causality test and VEC model.The study found that there was a long-term equilibrium between the rice purchase market and the rice retail market.There was a long-term equilibrium between the rice purchase market and the domestic rice futures market,but the short-term price transmission efficiency was low;the value-added income generated in the"rice-rice"value chain was mainly concentrated in rice retail,rice processing and farmers'rice sales;the so-called"rice is strong and rice is weak"could not be supported by the necessary evidence;too much emphasis on the"sale at favorable prices"of rice from state-owned grain depots was not conducive to the realization of the food security goal based on self production of grain.Finally,corresponding policy recommendations for continuing to implement the minimum purchase price policy of rice and realizing the goal of food security based on self production of grain were put forward.
作者
李宁
吴倩
辛毅
LI Ning;WU Qian;XIN Yi(Business School at Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;China Post E-commerce Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100033,China;School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
北大核心
2023年第5期1-12,共12页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学基金规划项目(18YJA790089)。
关键词
“稻谷—大米”价值链
价格形成过程
价格联系
VEC模型
"rice-rice"value chain
price formation process
price conduction
VEC(vector error correction)model
