摘要
基于京津冀地区174个气象台站1981—2020年逐日最高气温、最低气温数据资料,统计计算了京津冀地区极端高温事件相关指标(极端最高温TXx、高温日数Htd和闷热日数Swd),利用多种统计方法分析了京津冀地区近40年极端高温事件的时空分布特征,并探究了在气候变化背景下两个典型年代Htd和Swd的空间变化情况。结果表明:①近40年年极端最高温(TXx)、高温日数(Htd)和闷热日数(Swd)均呈上升趋势,京津冀地区极端高温事件强度增强、频次增加,并且年代际呈波动变化特征。②京津冀地区极端高温事件主要集中发生在6—8月份,其中TXx和Htd主要发生在6、7月份,Swd集中发生在7月份;冀北山区的高温、闷热日集中发生在7月份。③京津冀地区高温日和闷热日初(终)日呈提前(显著推迟)趋势,高温和闷热日更早发生且持续时间更长、同步性增强。④京津冀地区极端高温事件多发生在南部,TXx和Htd空间分布均呈南高北低的分布特征,Swd呈东南高、西北低的分布特征;极端高温事件显著增加的地区主要集中在经济人口发展较快的北京、天津和石家庄三个大城市。⑤M-K突变分析发现京津冀地区极端高温事件突变发生在1990年代,对比突变前后两个年代(偏冷的1980年代和偏暖的2010年代)发现京津冀邻近渤海区域(天津、唐山以及沧州市)高温闷热天气随年代际发生的概率显著增加。
Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 174 meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1981 to 2020,the relevant indexes of extreme heat events(Extreme maximum temperature TXx,High temperature day Htd and Sultry weather day Swd)are calculated.The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of extreme heat events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the past 40 years are analyzed using a variety of statistical methods,and the spatial variations of Htd and Swd in two typical decades under the background of climate change are investigated.The results showed that:①The annual extreme maximum temperature(TXx),the high temperature day(Htd)and Sultry weather day(Swd)all showed an increasing trend in the past 40 years.The intensity and frequency of extreme heat events increased in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and showed an interdecadal fluctuation.②Extreme heat events mainly occurred from June to August in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,with TXx and Htd mainly occurring in June and July,and Swd mainly occurring in July.The high temperature and Sultry weather in the northern mountainous area of Hebei are concentrated in July.③In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the early(and late)days of high temperature and sultry weather were advanced(significantly delayed).The high temperature and Sultry weather day occurred earlier and lasted longer,with enhanced synchronization.④Most extreme heat events occur in the southern part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The spatial distribution of TXx and Htd is high in the south and low in the north,while Swd is high in the southeast and low in the northwest.The areas with significant increase of extreme heat events were mainly concentrated in Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang,three big cities with fast economic and population development.⑤M-K mutation analysis showed that the abrupt change of extreme heat events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region occurred in the 1990s,and comparing the two decades before and after the abrup
作者
张君枝
梁雅楠
王冀
谢铁军
ZHANG Junzhi;LIANG Yanan;WANG Ji;XIE Tiejun(Architecture Research and Talent Training Base for Climate Change,Beijing University of Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;Beijing Climate Center,Beijing 100089,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期80-88,共9页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
中国气象局科技项目“全球变暖背景下我国高温事件的机理研究及客观预测方法研发”(CXFZ2022J030)
北京建筑大学“科创2035计划”项目“京津冀地区极端气候事件灾害风险评估及韧性宜居策略研究”(30080922013)。
关键词
极端高温事件
极端最高温
高温日数
闷热日数
变化趋势
京津冀
extreme heat events
extreme maximum temperature
high temperature day
sultry weather day
change trend
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
