摘要
基于高原河谷城市西宁市2000-2020年土地利用数据,选取9类自然因素与社会经济因素驱动因子,运用MCE-CA-Markov耦合模型,以2000-2010年土地利用为基期,模拟2020年土地利用变化并对预测结果精度验证,最后以2020年为基期数据,预测2030年研究区土地利用空间格局。结果表明:MCE-CA-Markov模型模拟2020年土地利用精度验证结果Kappa系数为0.8691,土地利用变化预测方法可行;2000-2020年研究区土地利用变化显著,2030年建设用地增长趋势明显,耕地、草地面积有所减少;在服务于国土空间规划的实践中,西宁市在未来城市发展过程中土地利用冲突问题明显。
Based on the land use data of Xining City from 2000 to 2020,nine types of natural and socio-economic driving factors were selected.The MCE-CA-Markov coupling model was used to simulate the land use changes in 2020 using the land use period from 2000 to 2010 as the base period,and the accuracy of the prediction results was verified.Finally,the spatial pattern of land use types in the study area by 2030 was predicted using the land use period from 2020 as the base period data,and combined with existing land spatial planning.The result show that the regression analysis of driving factors passed the validity test,the Kappa coefficient value of land use change in 2020 was 0.8691,and the prediction result is credible.The land use had changed significantly in the past 10 years,the area of construction land in Xining City will increase in 2030,and the area of cultivated land and grassland area will decrease.In the practice of serving national spatial planning,the issue of land use conflicts in the future urban development process of Xining City is obvious.
作者
蒋贵彦
Jiang Guiyan(School of Politics and Public Administration,Qinghai Minzu University,Xining 810007,China;Laboratory of Land Resources Survey and Planning,Qinghai Minzu University,Xining 810007,China)
出处
《青海科技》
2023年第4期184-191,共8页
Qinghai Science and Technology
基金
青海省社会科学规划项目“基于绿地生态网络规划的高原城市生态空间管理实践研究”(21002)。
