摘要
RCEP启动大力助推了亚太区域经济一体化进程,为经济增长乏力、疫情蔓延、逆全球化之下的世界经济带来新曙光,而域内经济体经贸往来密切化势必对台湾地区制造业出口贸易产生冲击。在此背景下,选取2001-2021年台湾地区与RCEP经济体制造业贸易数据,就贸易结合度、产业分工水平、出口相似度进行现状分析;采用GTAP模型对台湾地区与主要制造业贸易对象在RCEP启动初期(第5年)、远期(实现高水平一体化)时的制造业出口水平进行模拟,并就台湾地区加入RCEP的情景进行预测。结果显示:未加入RCEP情景下,协定的深入、扩大和持续推进将对台湾地区制造业出口形成冲击,弱化与域内经济体制造业贸易关系、产业转移和空心化危机加重、贸易边缘化风险提升;加入RCEP情景下,台湾地区与域内经济体制造业贸易往来更加密切、制造业贸易结构优化、中国内地强劲的拉动作用将极大弱化域外经济体的贸易转移冲击。基于此,台湾地区应正视RCEP启动的影响,将中国内地发展契机转化为自身发展机遇,降低贸易边缘化风险。
The launching of RCEP has greatly boosted the economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region,which also brings new solutions for the world economy facing sluggish economic growth,epidemios and anti-globalization.However,the closer affinities in economy and trade among the economies of RCEP are bound to make great manufacturing exportation shocks for Taiwan.In this context,analysis that based on the trade data between Taiwan and RCEP economies from 2001 to 2021,on the status quo of trade integration,industrial division and export similarity are given.Then GTAP is used to simulate the launching of RCEP both in the initial(5th year)and long-term(high-level integration finally achieved)stage.Meanwhile,the scenario of Taiwan joining RCEP is also predicted.The results show that without joining RCEP,Taiwan's manufacturing exportation will be impacted with the in-depth expansion and continuous promotion of RCEP.As a result,the manufacturing trade relationship with the economies in the region will be weaken,and crisis of industrial transference,hollowing out phenomenon and marginalization tend to be ascended.While joining RCEP,a closer bond will be forged between Taiwan and regional economies,and optimized manufacturing trade structure will be formed.The trade transfer influence of economies outside the region will greatly weakened by the strong pull effect from the mainland.Based on the empirical results above,Taiwan must face and judge the launching impact of RCEP,turn the mainland's development opportunities into its own development chances,and reduce marginalization crisis are necessary for Taiwan.
作者
刘曙光
封珊
李俊鸿
周宏伟
Liu Shuguang;Feng Shan;Li Junhong;Zhou Hongwei
出处
《台湾研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第4期43-55,共13页
Taiwan Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代中国特色社会主义思想指引下的海洋强国建设方略研究”(18VSJ067)
中国工程科技发展战略山东研究院咨询研究项目“山东与日韩科技合作战略研究”(202002SDZD02)。
