摘要
区域贸易协定对成员国、非成员国间国际贸易和福利的影响效应一直是国际贸易领域中被广泛关注的焦点问题。为研究RCEP生效所产生的经济效应,使用全球范围内40个国家或地区间以及国内总贸易流量、分部门贸易流量的面板数据,与区域贸易协定数据进行匹配,进而构建研究的基础数据集。基于结构引力模型的分析框架,从广延边际和集约边际视角对RCEP生效的经济效应展开反事实模拟分析,量化RCEP生效对各国的国际贸易和GDP变动的影响效应。研究认为,两种反事实模拟分析手段下,RCEP生效对成员经济体总出口和分部门出口的贸易创造效应表现突出;贸易转移效应不明显,研究样本中还存在着逆向的贸易转移效应;RCEP生效对成员经济体福利水平影响可控,没有发现影响RCEP稳定性的福利净损失严重等突出问题。研究还认为,RCEP将促进中国的总出口、农业、制造业、服务业和中间品出口的增长,加快中国与亚太地区各国或地区贸易融合速度,相关部门需要结合协定,加快完善国内相关政策法规,选择重点领域和行业,制定实施方案,为协定的实施提供制度保障;相关行业协会需要加快对标国际先进产业水平,做好提升标准、完善规则等相关准备。
The effect of regional trade agreements on international trade and welfare between member countries and non-member countries has always been the focus of extensive attention in the field of international trade.In order to study the economic effects of RCEP's entry into force,this paper uses the panel data of 40 countries or regions and domestic total trade flow and sub-sector trade flow to match with the data of regional trade agreements,and then constructs the basic data set of the research.Based on the analytical framework of the Structural Gravity Model,a counterfactual simulation analysis of the economic effects of RCEP's entry into force is carried out from the perspectives of extensive and intensive marginals,and the impact of RCEP's entry into force on the international trade and GDP changes of various countries is quantified.According to the study,under the two counterfactual simulation analysis methods,the trade creation effect of RCEP on the total export and sub-sector export of member economies is outstanding;the trade diversion effect is not obvious,and there is still a reverse trade diversion effect in the research sample;the impact of RCEP's entry into force on the welfare levels of member economies is controllable,and no prominent problems such as serious net welfare losses that affect the stability of RCEP have been found.RCEP will promote the growth of China's total export,agriculture,manufacturing,service industry and intermediate product export,and accelerate the speed of trade integration between China and countries or regions in the Asia-Pacific region.Relevant authorities need to speed up the improvement of relevant domestic regulations and policies based on agreements,and select key areas and industries to formulate implementation plans and provide institutional guarantees for the implementation of the agreements;relevant industry associations need to speed up the benchmarking of international advanced industrial levels,and make relevant preparations for raising standards and improving rule
作者
张天顶
李汇思
ZHANG Tianding;LI Huisi(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Hubei 430072,Wuhan,China;Economics School,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 520038,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》
2023年第3期17-34,共18页
Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目(17JHQ035)
武汉大学研究生导师育人方式创新项目(2023YJ10501)。
关键词
《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》
深度贸易协定
结构引力模型
一般均衡分析
总出口
中间品贸易
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)
deep trade agreement
Structural Gravity Model
general equilibrium analysis
total export
trade in intermediate goods
