摘要
对于石油企业来说,对已有加油站的销售水平进行评价和对新建加油站销量进行预测是企业决策中的重要一环,相应参数的测算也是经营和投资的重要参考。结合加油站的运营数据及空间数据,使用因子分析、聚类分析、判别分析等大数据技术构建了加油站指数体系,建立销售潜力的预测模型,实现对已有加油站的销量(收入)评价,并给出新建加油站销售潜力的区间预测。应用包头、呼和浩特、巴彦淖尔、太原、运城、哈尔滨等6个城市的数据进行了实证分析,验证了模型的可行性与有效性。
Evaluating the sales level of current gas stations and estimating the sales of new gas stations is an essential aspect of corporate decision-making for petroleum firms,and the computation of associated metrics is also an important reference for operation and investment.The gas station index system was created utilizing big data technologies such as factor analysis,cluster analysis,and discriminant analysis,as well as operational and spatial data from gas stations.Furthermore,a prediction model for sales potential was developed to fulfill the sales(revenue)evaluation of current gas stations,as well as an interval projection for the sales potential of future gas stations.Data from six cities,including Baotou,Hohhot,Bayannur,Taiyuan,Yuncheng,and Harbin,were utilized for empirical study to validate the model’s practicality and efficacy.
作者
张蕾
邢治河
高鲁营
顾曦
ZHANG Lei;XING Zhihe;GAO Luying;GU Xi(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute)
出处
《油气与新能源》
2023年第4期41-49,共9页
Petroleum and new energy
