摘要
通过构建森林火灾保险评价体系,运用聚类分析方法和指数平滑方法,对内蒙古各盟市森林火灾风险等级和保险费率进行估算研究。结果表明:内蒙古各盟市森林火灾风险分为3个等级,高风险区域包括呼伦贝尔市和兴安盟,中风险区域包括呼和浩特市、通辽市、包头市、赤峰市、鄂尔多斯市、锡林郭勒盟和乌兰察布市,低风险区域包括乌海、巴彦淖尔市和阿拉善盟;高风险区费率水平为3.81‰~4.19‰,中风险区费率水平为2.51‰~3.81‰,低风险区费率水平为2.48‰~2.51‰。因此,应在掌握内蒙古各盟市森林火灾风险等级的基础上,根据风险分区差别厘定各盟市森林火灾保险费率水平;同时,加快构建以政府为引导,林业部门与保险机构协作的数据共享平台和森林保险费率水平动态调整机制。
⑴Background——The problems of unitary rate determination,lack of regional division of risk and low level of security restrict the high-quality development of forest insurance.Regional division of risk and differential rate determination of forest insurance in a smaller region has become the key problem to be solved in the development of forest insurance.⑵Methods——The evaluation indexes of regional division of forest fire risk mainly include forest fire disaster data index,forest fire risk data index and forest resource data index.Among them,the forest fire disaster data index includes the number of forest fires,the fire area,the affected area and the expenditure for fighting fire,the forest fire risk data index includes average temperature,average relative humidity and average precipitation,and the forest resource data index includes relative forest coverage rate and forest resource share rate.The research data came from“Forestry and Grassland Disasters Statistics in Inner Mongolia(2000—2022)”,the forest resources inventory data provided by Forestry and Grassland Administration of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and“Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook(2000—2022)”.The classification of risk levels and estimation of differential rates of forest fire insurance in Inner Mongolia were discussed by using cluster analysis method and exponential smoothing method.⑶Results——According to the results of regional division of forest fire risk level,the forest fire risk level in Inner Mongolia can be divided into three levels,namely high risk regions,medium risk regions and low risk regions.The high risk regions include Hulunbuir City and Hinggan League,the medium risk regions include Hohhot City,Tongliao City,Baotou City,Chifeng City,Erdos City,Xilin Gol League and Ulanqab City,and the low risk regions include Wuhai City,Bayannur City and Alxa League.The forest fire risk level is affected by many factors such as the forest resources area,the occurrence of fires and the climatic conditions in the l
作者
徐玮
XU Wei(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China)
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2023年第2期154-161,共8页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
内蒙古哲学社会科学规划项目(2020NDC060)
内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(BR221316/BR221042)
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目(2020BS07007)
内蒙古农业大学青年教师科研能力提升专项(BR230206)。
关键词
费率
厘定
风险区划
森林火灾
内蒙古
insurance rate
determination
regional division of risk
forest fires
Inner Mongolia
