摘要
为有效计算高速铁路列车调度员的人因失误概率,以成功似然指数法(SLIM)为基础,采用二元语义和组合赋权法对SLIM进行改进。该方法从个人因素、设备因素、环境因素和组织因素4个维度出发构建了行为形成因子(PSF)。考虑到PSF的模糊性和不确定性,利用二元语义对PSF的影响程度进行表征,并采用最优组合赋权法来计算PSF权重,在此基础上计算成功似然指数,进而得出人因失误概率的量化值。选取高速铁路列车调度中常见的3个任务进行实例分析,结果表明改进SLIM方法可以实现人因失误概率的量化计算,识别列车调度员人因失误概率较高的操作,可以为高速铁路列车调度系统的人因风险预测和防范提供参考依据。
In order to effectively calculate the error probability of high speed railway train dispatchers,based on the success likelihood index method(SLIM),binary semantics and combined weighting method were used to improve SLIM.This method constructed the performance shaping factors(PSF) from four dimensions:personal factors,equipment factors,environmental factors,and organizational factors.By considering the ambiguity and uncertainty of PSF,the influence of binary semantics on PSF was used to characterize the PSF weight,and the optimal combination weighting method was used to calculate the PSF weight.On this basis,the SLI was calculated,and a quantified value of the error probability of high speed railway train dispatchers was thus obtained.Three common tasks in high speed railway train scheduling were selected for example analysis.The results show that the improved SLIM method can realize the quantitative calculation of the error probability of high speed railway train dispatchers and identify the operations with a high error probability of the train dispatchers.It can provide a reference for the human risk prediction and prevention of the high speed railway train dispatching system.
作者
孙延浩
宋宏智
任禹谋
SUN Yanhao;SONG Hongzhi;REN Yumou(Signal&Communication Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China;The Center of National Railway Intelligent Transportation System Engineering and Technology,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2023年第9期125-131,共7页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(U1834211)
中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2021YJ097)。
