摘要
为解决液态危化品道路运输系统的“贫信息”和“模糊性”问题并确定事故防控重点,提出一种组合赋权-灰色聚类风险评价方法,并引入事故影响系数.该方法首先依据液态危化品风险特性和道路运输特点构建评价指标体系,利用层次分析法和熵权法组合确定指标权重.其次采用灰色聚类法处理评价系统信息模糊、不完整问题,通过构造白化权函数对各指标进行聚类分析,确定风险等级.然后计算风险指标的事故影响系数并排序,得到事故防控重点.最后,利用该方法对某企业的甲醇运输风险进行评价.结果表明:该企业的运输风险较小,但“违规驾驶”“液态危化品特性”和“驾驶员安全意识”这3项风险指标对事故的影响程度较大,应对其进行重点防控,这一结果与企业的实际情况相吻合,说明本方法的正确性和可行性,所提方法可为液态危化品道路运输风险评价提供一种新思路.
In order to solve the problem of poor information and ambiguity in the road transportation system of hazardous liquid chemicals and determine the focus of accident prevention and control,a combined weighting-gray clustering risk evaluation method is proposed,and the accident influence coefficient is introduced.The method firstly constructs an evaluation index system based on the risk characteristics of liquid hazardous chemicals and road transportation characteristics,and uses the combination of AHP and entropy weight method to determine the index weight.Then the gray clustering method is used to deal with the fuzzy and incomplete information of the evaluation system,and the risk level is determined by clustering analysis of each index by constructing a whitening weight function.Then,the accident impact coefficient of risk indicators is calculated and sorted,and the key points of accident prevention and control are obtained.Finally,this method is used to evaluate the methanol transportation risk of an enterprise.The results show that the transportation risk of this enterprise is small,but the three risks of violation of driving,characteristics of liquid hazardous chemicals and driver s safety awareness have a greater impact on the accident,and it should be focused on prevention and control.This result is consistent with the actual situation of the enterprise,which verifies the correctness and feasibility of this method,and provides a new idea for the risk assessment of road transportation of liquid hazardous chemicals.
作者
杨璧帆
周荣义
李丽
郑时求
YANG Bifan;ZHOU Rongyi;LI Li;ZHENG Shiqiu(School of Resources,Environment and Safety Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China;Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Safe Mining Techniques of Coal Mines,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)
出处
《矿业工程研究》
2023年第2期65-72,共8页
Mineral Engineering Research
基金
湖南省教育厅资助重点科研资助项目(20A192)
湖南省交通运输厅科技进步与创新计划资助项目(201943)。
关键词
液态危化品道路运输
灰色聚类法
组合赋权法
风险评价
road transportation of liquid hazardous chemicals
grey clustering method
combined weighting method
risk evaluation
