摘要
为明确检疫性有害生物无花果蜡蚧Ceroplastes rusci(Linnaeus)入侵我国的风险,基于MaxEnt生态位模型,结合地理信息系统ArcGIS,对无花果蜡蚧在当前和未来气候条件下的我国适生区范围进行预测。结果表明,在我国四川、云南、贵州、重庆、广西、陕西、湖北、湖南、安徽、江西、河南、山东、江苏、浙江、广东、福建、海南、台湾地区等省(自治区、直辖市)均存在其适生可能性。在未来气候条件下,无花果蜡蚧在我国的适生区域呈扩大趋势,高度适生区主要在我国西南和沿海。无花果蜡蚧的偏好寄主无花果和柑橘在我国种植面积较大,种植区域与无花果蜡蚧潜在分布区又高度重合,因此要加强对无花果蜡蚧入侵的监测工作,防止其进一步传播扩散而造成巨大经济损失。
To clarify the invasion risk of the quarantine pest,Ceroplastes rusci(Linnaeus)in China,we used a MaxEnt niche model and geographic information system(ArcGIS),to predict the suitable area range of C.rusci in China under historical and future climatic scenarios.The results showed that Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou,Chongqing,Guangxi,Shaanxi,Hubei,Hunan,Anhui,Jiangxi,Henan,Shandong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Fujian,Hainan,Taiwan,and other provinces were suitable areas for C.rusci.Under future climatic conditions,the suitable area of C.rusci in China showed an expanding trend.Highly suitable areas were mainly in the southwestern and coastal areas of China.C.rusci prefers to host figs and citrus fruits,of which the planting area in China is large and coincides with the potential distribution area of C.rusci.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of C.rusci to prevent its further invasion and spread,which would cause huge economic losses.
作者
李倩
赵守歧
刘慧
李志红
赵紫华
秦誉嘉
Li Qian;Zhao Shouqi;Liu Hui;Li Zhihong;Zhao Zihua;Qin Yujia(Department of Plant Biosecurity,College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100193,China;National Agricultural Technology Extension Service Center,Beijing 100125,China)
出处
《中国植保导刊》
北大核心
2023年第7期86-92,共7页
China Plant Protection
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC2600400)。
关键词
无花果蜡蚧
MAXENT
潜在地理分布
气候变化
Ceroplastes rusci(Linnaeus)
MaxEnt
potential geographic distribution
climatic change
