摘要
“双碳”目标背景下,提升城市生态效率成为绿色发展的重要话题。基于2011—2019年珠三角城市群9个地市的面板数据,采用Super-SBM模型对城市生态效率进行定量测度,结合核密度估计、趋势面分析法揭示其时空格局演变,并运用时空地理加权回归模型从时间、空间两大维度探讨其驱动因素的影响效应及其时空差异。结果表明:(1)研究期间珠三角生态效率整体呈波动上升态势。2011—2014年珠三角生态效率均值从0.61降至0.44,增长率为-27.93%;2015—2019年生态效率均值从0.57升至0.71,增长率为23.18%。核密度曲线显示存在低效率城市向高效率城市的“追赶效应”。(2)珠三角各市生态效率在空间上呈现以珠江口一带为核心的中间高、两翼低的空间格局。在东西向和南北向呈现“倒U”型特征,随时间演化减弱并呈现中部>东部>西部、北部>南部的趋势分异。(3)珠三角各市生态效率驱动因素具有时空异质性。时间维度上,城市化对生态效率的正向驱动效应随时间波动下降,环境规制的抑制效应逐渐弱化,产业结构的影响效应随时间演化由正转负;空间维度上,城市化的影响系数呈现自西南向东北增长的格局,环境规制的抑制效应主要作用于中山、广州等中部城市,产业结构的影响系数呈现西正东负的格局。研究结果为珠三角城市群的绿色低碳发展提供空间决策支持,并为其他大城市群的生态系统管理与研究提供重要启示。
Under the context of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,improving urban eco-efficiency has become an important topic for green development.Based on panel data from nine cities in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from 2011 to 2019,we used the Super-SBM model to quantitatively measure urban eco-efficiency.The spatio-temporal evolution pattern was revealed by combining kernel density estimation and trend surface analysis.Furthermore,the geographically and temporally weighted regression model(GTWR)was employed to explore the effects of the driving factors and their spatio-temporal differences from the temporal and spatial perspectives.The results showed that:(1)The overall eco-efficiency of the Pearl River Delta fluctuated and rose during the study period.From 2011 to 2014,the average eco-efficiency of the Pearl River Delta decreased from 0.61 to 0.44,with a rate of-27.93%.From 2015 to 2019,it increased from 0.57 to 0.71,with a growth rate of 23.18%.The kernel density curve showed a“catch-up effect”from low-efficiency cities to high-efficiency cities.(2)The eco-efficiency of the cities showed a spatial pattern of high in the middle and low in the two wings,with the Pearl River Estuary as the core.This pattern showed an“inverted U”shape in both east-west and north-south directions,which weakened over time and presented a trend differentiation of central part eastern part western and northern parts southern part.(3)The driving factors of eco-efficiency in the cities exhibited spatio-temporal heterogeneity.Temporally,the positive driving effect of urbanization on eco-efficiency decreased with fluctuation over time,the inhibitory effect of environmental regulation weakened gradually,and the impact of industrial structure changed from positive to negative.Spatially,the impact coefficient of urbanization increased from southwest to northeast,the inhibitory effect of environmental regulation mainly occurred in the central cities such as Zhongshan and Guangzhou,and the impact coefficient of indu
作者
梁归
方凤满
李俊峰
LIANG Gui;FANG Fengman;LI Junfeng(College of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Regional Response in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,Wuhu 241003,Anhui,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第8期1973-1981,共9页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41977402)
安徽省教育厅科学研究项目(yjs20210185)资助。
关键词
生态效率
Super-SBM模型
时空演变
时空地理加权回归模型
驱动因素
eco-efficiency
Super-SBM model
spatio-temporal evolution
geographically and temporally weighted regression model(GTWR)
driving factor
