摘要
通过专家打分法,确定了大理白族自治州主要灾害类型为暴雨洪涝、冰雹、大风;运用地理探测器、GIS空间分析等方法,以历史气象灾情数据为基础,探究了3个灾种气象灾害空间分布与相互影响因子之间的关系,并构建了灾害指数,划分了灾害致灾区域。从灾害系统角度出发,结合专家打分法,从4个维度层面(大理白族自治州气象灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体的易损性和防灾能力)搭建大理白族自治州多灾种气象灾害风险评估模型。结果表明:大理白族自治州乡镇级行政区划中,低风险地区占比高,低风险地区和较低风险地区占比为60.72%,中等风险地区占比为20.53%,而高风险地区和次高风险地区占全部区域的18.75%。高风险地区和次高风险地区主要分布在大理白族自治州东北部、南部和中部。
First determined the main disaster types of Dali Prefecture as rainstorm and flood,hail and gale through expert scoring method.Then,based on historical meteorological disaster data,it explored the relationship between the spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and mutual influence factors of the three disaster types through geographical detectors,GIS spatial analysis and other methods,and constructed disaster index to divide disaster causing regions.Finally,from the perspective of disaster system,combined with the expert scoring method,the risk assessment model of multiple meteorological disasters in Dali was constructed from four dimensions(namely,the risk of meteorological disasters in Dali,the sensitivity of disaster-producing environment,the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the disaster prevention ability).The results show that in the township administrative divisions of Dali Prefecture,low risk accounts for a high proportion,low risk and low risk accounts for 60.72%,medium risk areas account for 20.53%,and high and sub-high risk areas account for 18.75%of the total area.High and sub-high risk areas were mainly distributed in the northeast,south and middle of Dali.
作者
向曦
彭艳秋
赵婧
Xiang Xi(Yunnan Meteorological Service Center,Kunming,Yunnan 650034)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2023年第6期82-86,100,共6页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
基金
大理白族自治州重点科技支撑专项计划“大理白族自治州灾害性天气气候致灾风险研究”(D2021NA03)。
关键词
灾害风险
承灾体
地理探测器
多灾种
Disaster risk
Disaster-bearing body
Geographical detector
Multi-hazard
