摘要
目的:分析2004—2018年中国31个省、直辖市、自治区伤寒和副伤寒疫情变化趋势及时空分布情况,为伤寒和副伤寒防控提供依据。方法:基于2004—2018年中国公共卫生科学数据中心平台报告的伤寒和副伤寒病例数据,进行描述并采用Joinpoint回归、空间自相关、空间扫描分析疫情的时空效应。结果:2004—2018年我国内地伤寒和副伤寒疫情逐年下降,<5岁儿童是发病主要人群且发病率呈现上升,2011—2018年度变化百分比(APC)为6.5%(P<0.05)。2004—2018年伤寒和副伤寒发病率存在空间正相关(Moran’s I指数为0.087~0.389,Z>1.960,P<0.05)。时空扫描发现:聚集时间为2004—2006年(LLR=29380.06,RR=2.70,P<0.001),季节为4—9月;伤寒主要聚集在云南、广西、贵州(LLR=77653.50,RR=4.571,P<0.001);副伤寒主要聚集在广西、贵州、云南、浙江、江西、湖南(LLR=54280.50,RR=3.455,P<0.001)。结论:我国内地伤寒和副伤寒疫情逐年下降,<5岁儿童仍是发病主要人群,疫情存在明显的时间和空间效应,好发于夏季及我国南方地区。
Objective:To analyze the change trend and spatial distribution of typhoid/paratyphoid fever in 31 provinces,municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions in China from 2004 to 2018,so as to provide a basis for the prevention and control of typhoid/paratyphoid fever.Methods:Based on the typhoid and paratyphoid fever case data reported by the China Public Health Science Data Center platform from 2004 to 2018,the data were described and the spatio-temporal effect of the epidemic was analyzed by Joinpoint regression,spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning.Results:The incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Chinese mainland decreased year by year from 2004 to 2018.Children under 5 years old were the main population and the incidence rate increased.The annual percent change(APC)from 2011 to 2018 was 6.5%(P<0.05).There was a positive spatial correlation between the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever from 2004 to 2018(Moran's I index was 0.087-0.389,Z>1.960,P<0.05).Spatio-temporal scanning showed that the aggregation time was from 2004 to 2006(LLR=29,380.06,RR=2.70,P<0.001)and the season was from April to September,typhoid fever mainly concentrated in Yunnan,Guangxi and Guizhou(LLR=77,653.50,RR=4.571,P<0.001),and paratyphoid fever mainly concentrated in Guangxi,Guizhou,Yunnan,Zhejiang,Jiangxi and Hunan(LLR=54,280.50,RR=3.455,P<0.001).Conclusion:The incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in Chinese mainland is decreasing year by year,and children under 5 years old are still the main population.The epidemic situation shows obvious temporal and spatial effect,and is prone to occur in summer and in southern China.
作者
杨丹凌
梁凯琼
苏海霞
文立
黎燕宁
Yang Danling;Liang Kaiqiong;Su Haixia;Wen Li;Li Yanning(Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning 530021,China)
出处
《广西医科大学学报》
CAS
2023年第6期1019-1025,共7页
Journal of Guangxi Medical University
基金
广西研究生教育创新计划项目(No.YCSW2022222)。
关键词
伤寒和副伤寒
空间自相关
时空扫描
typhoid/paratyphoid
Joinpoint regression
spatial autocorrelation
spatio-temporal scanning
