摘要
客观测算渔业碳排放福利绩效,对实现渔业低碳发展、促进渔业资源与社会环境协调发展具有重要意义。依据中国内地30个省份2003—2018年的渔业数据建立渔业碳排放福利绩效模型,结合泰尔指数和基尼系数分析我国及八大经济区的渔业碳排放福利绩效区域差异及演变规律,并采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对我国未来渔业碳排放福利绩效进行预测。研究结果显示:中国内地30个省份渔业碳排放福利绩效总体呈现波动下降趋势,且存在明显差异。未来我国渔业碳排放福利绩效变动幅度不大但将存在下降趋势,为避免渔业碳排放福利绩效的进一步下滑,要保持警惕,实行更加积极的渔业碳减排政策。我国渔业碳排放福利绩效的区域内差异和区域间差异都在逐渐缩小,分布逐渐趋于均衡,区域间差异则是造成地区发展不平衡的重要原因。
Objectively measuring the welfare performance of fishery carbon emission is of great significance for achieving low-carbon fishery development and promoting the coordinated development of fishery resources and social environment.Based on the fishery data from 30 provinces in China's Mainland from 2003 to 2018,this study establishes a welfare performance model of fishery carbon emission,and combined with the Theil index and Gini coefficient,analyzes the regional differences and evolution patterns of fishery carbon emission welfare performance in China and its eight major economic zones while predicting China future fishery carbon emission welfare performance by using the GM(1,1)gray prediction model.The results show that the welfare performance of fishery carbon emission in 30 provinces in China's Mainland overall presents a fluctuating downward trend with significant differences.In the future,the welfare performance of China fishery carbon emission will not fluctuate significantly,but will present a downward trend,and in order to avoid a further decline in the welfare performance of fishery carbon emission,it is necessary to remain vigilant and implement more proactive fishery carbon reduction policies.The intra-regional and inter-regional differences in the welfare performance of China fishery carbon emission are gradually narrowing and its distribution is gradually becoming balanced,and inter-regional difference is an important reason for regional development imbalance.
作者
李晨
栾佩园
李昊玉
邵桂兰
LI Chen;LUAN Peiyuan;LI Haoyu;SHAO Guilan(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《山东财经大学学报》
2023年第4期79-94,共16页
Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“产权激励推动社会资本参与我国海洋生态修复的机理和对策研究”(22CJY028)。
关键词
渔业碳排放
碳排放福利绩效
区域差异
灰色预测模型
fishery carbon emission
carbon emission welfare performance
regional difference
gray prediction model
