摘要
风险识别是风险预测的前提和基础。针对目前风险识别方法不能准确识别项目不同阶段的风险问题,提出一种基于工程建设项目生命周期的风险识别与预测方法。首先,将工程建设项目生命周期划分为项目策划、项目规划、项目设计、项目实施、项目竣工5个阶段,并建立了工程建设项目生命周期中各阶段风险清单;其次,根据各阶段风险清单,采用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对各阶段风险进行识别;最后,以某公路项目为例,对其各阶段的风险进行识别与预测。研究结果表明:该方法能准确识别出工程建设项目不同阶段的风险,并对各阶段的风险进行预测,能够为工程建设企业控制和减少工程建设过程中的风险提供参考。
Risk identification is the premise and foundation of risk prediction.Aiming at the problem that the current risk identification methods can not accurately identify the risks in different stages of the project,a risk identification and prediction method based on the life cycle of engineering construction projects is proposed.Firstly,the life cycle of engineering construction project is divided into five stages:project planning,project planning,project design,project implementation and project completion,and the risk list of each stage in the life cycle of engineering construction project is established.Secondly,according to the risk list of each stage,the risk of each stage is identified by AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;Finally,taking a highway project as an example,the risk of each stage is identified and predicted.The research results show that this method can accurately identify the risks in different stages of engineering construction projects and predict the risks in each stage,which can provide reference for engineering construction enterprises to control and reduce the risks in the process of engineering construction.
作者
杨婧兮
YANG Jingxi(Chongqing Rail Transit(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Chongqing,401120,China)
关键词
建设项目
项目管理
生命周期
风险识别
预测
construction project
project management
life cycle
risk identification
predict
