摘要
2020年11月15日,RCEP正式签署,对以出口为命脉的我国台湾地区经济将造成长远的影响。本文基于GTAP模型,模拟了RCEP签订后不同的RCEP地区关税降幅对我国台湾地区经济整体以及服务业相关产业的影响。本文首先运用GTAP软件模拟了三种RCEP地区关税情境对我国台湾地区宏观经济与所有产业的冲击,之后对服务业各细分行业的冲击进行了模拟。研究发现RCEP建立将对岛内各产业产出、经济增长、消费者福利带来负面冲击。但是,就服务业而言,得益于出口价格下降和RCEP地区需求上升,部分行业产出增加,但其他行业仍然将遭受产出下降的痛苦。
In November,15th,2020,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)was for⁃mally signed.This will be a long-term effect on Taiwan’s economy whose export is economic life line.Based on GTAP model,this paper simulated RCEP tariff reductions on Taiwan economy and specific industry such as ser⁃vices industry.The simulation results show that the establishment of RCEP will lead to deterioration of the industrial output,economic growth,and consumer welfare of the island.However,the output of some services industries will increase due to the drop of export price and increase in demand,but more will experience out⁃put decrease.
作者
王全义
WANG Quan-Yi(Taiwan Research Center of Wenzhou,Zhejiang Industry and Trade Vocational College,325003,Wenzhou,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《特区经济》
2023年第6期153-156,共4页
Special Zone Economy
基金
浙江省省台办2021年度涉台委托研究课题预立项项目(项目编号:W202138)
