摘要
为了解对外贸易与国民经济的关联程度,采用灰关联法对2010—2019年外贸行业年度数据与国民经济核算指标年度数据进行关联性实证分析,发现大部分外贸指标与国民经济核算指标关联程度较高、耦合作用明显,少量外贸指标与国民经济核算指标关联程度一般、耦合作用中等。另外,从贸易方向来看,不管是货贸还是服贸,进口、出口与国民经济核算指标的关联性基本持平、没有明显差别;从贸易类型来看,虽然服务进出口总额远小于货物进出口总额,但前者与国内生产总值的关联程度明显高于后者,说明服务外贸日益重要。
In order to understand the correlation of foreign trade and national economy,the grey correlation method is used to conduct an empirical analysis of the correlation between the annual data of foreign trade industry and the annual data of national economic accounting indicators from 2010 to 2019.It is found that most of the foreign trade indicators are highly correlated with the national economic accounting indicators,and the coupling effect is obvious,and a small number of foreign trade index and national economic accounting index correlation degree general,coupling effect medium.In addition,from the perspective of trade direction,whether it is trade in goods or services,the correlation between import and export and national economic accounting indicators is basically the same.In terms of trade type,although the total amount of import and export of services is much less than the total amount of goods,the correlation between services and GDP is significantly higher than the goods,indicating that foreign trade in services is becoming increasingly important.
作者
林昭永
LIN Zhaoyong(Liming Vocational University,Quanzhou 362000,China)
出处
《黎明职业大学学报》
2023年第1期25-29,54,共6页
Journal of LiMing Vocational University
关键词
货物贸易
服务外贸
国民经济
灰关联分析
关联系数
trade in goods
foreign trade in service
national economy
gray correlation analysis
correlation coefficient
