摘要
以雄安新区上游中小河流域为例,选取年最大连续3 d降水量为洪水致灾因子,采用HBV水文模型和FloodArea水动力模型相结合的方法,模拟洪水淹没面积和水深变化,通过构建直接经济损失率脆弱性曲线,结合共享社会经济路径雄安新区人口经济预估情景,评估洪水灾害的经济损失风险。结果表明:雄安新区上游中小河流域1961—2019年最大连续3 d降水量为335 mm,重现期达200年一遇,2021—2050年SSP2-4.5情景下该降水重现期降低为150年一遇,造成雄安新区60%以上区域遭受洪水淹没,平均淹没水深达1.1 m;未来雄安新区受洪水影响的城乡工矿居民用地面积达119 km 2,约有50%以上的人口和国内生产总值(GDP)暴露在洪水影响下,人口和GDP均以新区起步区东南部和雄县大部暴露数量最大,分别达到1万人·km^(-2)和5亿元·km^(-2)以上;未来雄安新区因洪水造成的经济损失约为364亿元,占GDP总量的8%左右;全区85%的范围属于经济损失低风险区域,经济损失高风险区集中分布在新区起步区东南部、雄县和昝岗镇的城乡居住区,约占全区总面积的2%。
Taking the small-and medium-sized river basins in the upper reaches of Xiong’an New Area as a study area,selecting maximum precipitation for three consecutive days as flood hazard factor and using a combination of HBV hydrological model and FloodArea hydrodynamic model,we simulated the flood inundation range and depth and assessed the economic loss risk of flood disaster through building vulnerability curve of direct economic loss rate in combination with population and economic projections under SSPs.The results show that in the small-and medium-sized river basins in the upper reaches of Xiong’an New Area,the maximum precipitation for three consecutive days during 1961-2019 was 335 mm,with a return period of once in 200 years.Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,this precipitation return period will decrease to once in 150 years from 2021 to 2050,which will cause more than 60%of the Xiong’an New Area to be inundated by floods,with an average inundated water depth of 1.1 m.The area of urban-rural industrial and mining residential land affected by floods in Xiong’an New Area will be 119 km^(2),and more than 50%of the population and GDP will be exposed to floods.The largest amount of population and GDP exposed to floods will be mostly located in the southeastern part of the starting area and most of Xiongxian County,which will be more than 10000 people per km^(2) and 500 million Yuan per km^(2) respectively.The economic loss of flood in Xiong’an New Area will be about 36.4 billion Yuan,accounting for about 8%of GDP.Moreover,85%of the whole region will belong to the low-risk area of economic loss,the areas with high risk of economic loss will be concentrated in the southeast of the starting area,and also in the urban and rural residential areas in Xiongxian County and Zangang Town,which will take up 2%of the total area.
作者
司丽丽
赵亮
魏铁鑫
陈小雷
李璨
陈梓延
姜彤
王艳君
SI Lili;ZHAO Liang;WEI Tiexin;CHEN Xiaolei;LI Can;CHEN Ziyan;JIANG Tong;WANG Yanjun(Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021;CMA Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory,Hebei,Xiong’an 071800;Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Environment Meteorological Center of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021;Meteorological Office of Xiong’an New Area,Hebei,Xiong’an 071700;Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Science,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044)
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第6期745-756,共12页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
河北省“十三五”规划重点项目(2020032540)
国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603701)共同资助。
关键词
经济损失风险
共享社会经济路径
洪水灾害
雄安新区
中小河流
economic loss risk
shared socioeconomic pathways
flood disaster
Xiong’an New Area
small-and medium-sized river
