摘要
文中以贵州某水电站混凝土二次曲线型变厚双曲拱坝坝顶一测点为例,利用该点以往多期水平位移变形监测数据,采用多元线性回归分析模型来建立大坝变形预测模型,对模型的有效性进行检验,结果表明,文中所建模型有效。根据各影响因子的贡献率,利用所建模型进行实测数据拟合和预测,结果表明,文中所建模型具有较高的拟合和预测精度,预测结果可为大坝管理提供借鉴。
In this paper,a measuring point at the top of a hyperbolic arch dam with thickened concrete conic curve is taken as an example in a hydropower station in Guizhou province.Based on the monitoring data of horizontal displacement and deformation of this point in the past several periods,a dam deformation prediction model is established by using multiple linear regression analysis model.The validity of the model is tested,and the results show that the model is reliable and effective.According to the contribution rate of each influence factor,the model is used to fit and predict the measured data.The results show that the model has high fitting and prediction accuracy,and the prediction results can provide reference for dam management.
作者
梁航
Liang Hang(Zunyi Qiantongda Testing Co.Ltd.,Zunyi,Guizhou 563000)
出处
《江西建材》
2023年第4期54-55,共2页
Jiangxi Building Materials
关键词
混凝土拱坝
影响因子
变形监测
回归分析模型
模型预测
Concrete arch dam
Impact factor
Deformation monitoring
Regression analysis model
Model prediction