摘要
在冷战结束后采用竞争性选举制度的非洲国家中,一些发生了选举更替,另一些则没有。既有研究通常从执政党的角度分析选举更替不发生的原因,但从反对党的角度来分析选举更替发生的研究较少且存在不足。20世纪80年代以来新自由主义对非洲的冲击造成了当地国家社会权力关系的变化,政权对社会经济领域的支配能力受到削弱,形成了导致选举更替发生的结构性条件。当一国中处于政权非主导地位的族群控制一定规模的经济作物产业时,反对党组建跨族群政治联盟的经济资源就会较为充分,选举更替则容易发生,政府主导权就会在族群间发生转移。当一国中存在强势社会权威且它们在出口产业中的利益因结构调整而遭受损失,那么选举更替也容易发生,但主导族群会维持不变。通过对肯尼亚、加纳、塞内加尔、赞比亚、坦桑尼亚、津巴布韦和喀麦隆七个国家进行案例比较以及个案内的过程追踪分析,上述论点得到了验证。这为分析冷战后非洲相关国家的民主转型提供了新的因果机制解释。
After the end of the Cold War,some African countries changed their governments through elections,but some did not.The existing studies usually analyze the reasons why the alternation did not occur from the perspective of the ruling party,while the studies that analyze the reasons why the alternation happened from the perspective of the opposition party are few and insufficient.The shock of neo-liberalism on Africa since the 1980s has led to changes in the social power relations of local countries,weakening the power of the regime to dominate the socio-economic field,and creating structural conditions leading to the occurrence of alternation in elections.When the ethnic group in the non-ruling position of the regime controlled a cash crop sector,the economic resources for the opposition parties to form the inter-ethnic political alliance were relatively sufficient,the alternation in election occurred and the ruling ethnic group changed.When the interests of strong social authorities in the export sector had been undermined by structural adjustments,the alternation in election occurred but the ruling ethnic group unchanged.The above theory can be verified by case studies and process-tracing methods of seven countries including Kenya,Ghana,Senegal,Zambia,Tanzania,Zimbabwe and Cameroon.This study provides a new causal mechanism for the analysis of the democratic transitions of African countries after the Cold War.
作者
魏翊
Wei Yi(the Institute of Politics and Public Administration of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期83-113,170,共32页
World Economics and Politics
关键词
非洲政治
民主转型
政党政治
农业族群地理
新自由主义冲击
African politics
democratic transitions
party politics
agricultural ethnogeography
neoliberal shock
