摘要
本文通过评估疫情对就业、家庭最终消费、投资及贸易便利化的影响,并作为冲击引入全球价值链一般均衡模型(GVCs_CGE),以刻画疫情对全球经济系统的影响,进而对2020—2035年木材产业经济发展及全球价值链布局进行分析。研究结果表明,无论从传统角度或增加值角度来看,疫情对全球木材产业冲击主要集中于国际市场,各国产能转向国内;全球价值链整体受冲击严重,但产业布局结构趋向紧密,区域价值链发展势头明显。其中,中国木材产业传统贸易部分与全球贸易联系逐渐萎缩,但全球价值链的供需能力相对提升,产业区域价值链分工趋势明显。基于以上研究,本文提出加强中国木材产业上游供给能力和区域间贸易便利化等政策建议。
This paper uses the general equilibrium model of the global value chain(GVCs_CGE) to describe the impact of the pandemic situation by taking employment,final household consumption,investment,and trade facilitation as model impact variables and forecasts the economic development of the timber industry and the layout of the global value chain from 2020 to 2035.The results show that:no matter from traditional or added value point of view,the impact of the pandemic on the global timber industry is mainly concentrated on the international market,and the production capacity of various countries turns to domestic;the global value chain is seriously affected,but the industrial layout structure tends to be closer,and the development momentum of regional value chain is obvious.From China's point of view,traditional trade part of China's timber industry gradually shrinks with the global trade,but the supply and demand capacity of the global value chain is relatively improved,and the trend of regional value chain is obvious.Based on the above results,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as strengthening the upstream supply capacity of China's timber industry and upgrading inter-regional trade facilitation.
作者
李慧娟
程宝栋
杨军
LI Huijuan;CHENG Baodong;YANG Jun
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期81-98,共18页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
国家林草局重点项目(编号:2019132707)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:72073012,71873016),国家自然科学基金重大项目(编号:71733002),国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:71761147004)。
关键词
木材产业
可计算一般均衡模型
全球价值链
产业布局
Timber industry
Computable general equilibrium model
Global value chain
In-dustrial layout
