摘要
文章基于“双循环”新发展格局背景,首先从内部和外部结合、供需两侧结合的角度采用倒推法构建了数字经济驱动消费增长的理论逻辑框架,即“双循环新发展格局←国内循环为主体←扩大内需←供需匹配←产业升级和创新←数字经济”。接着选取中国286个地级市的数据,采用聚类分析法描述各城市数字经济发展水平并进行对比分析。研究发现:不同层级城市的数字经济增速存在明显区别,数字经济一线城市的数字经济指数水平远高于其他四个层级城市,但是数字经济五线城市的增速远超一线城市,表现出十足后劲;从数字经济和消费的拟合情况可以看出,数字经济和消费增长呈正相关关系;数字经济与产业结构升级、产业结构升级与消费增长之间都呈现一定的正向关系,但是现实情况也显示出产业结构优化指数比较高的城市没有能明显表现出相对应的良好消费势头。进一步建立有调节的中介效应模型对数字经济对消费增长的影响机制进行了实证检验。结果显示:从全样本层面看,数字经济对消费增长的总效应显著为正,说明数字经济能够在促进消费、拉动内需上发挥一定的作用。另外,产业结构升级的中介效应显著为正,说明数字经济能够通过推进产业结构升级从而促进消费增长,但是这个中介效应具有一定的地域差异。分区域看,产业结构升级的中介效应在东部地区不显著,在中西部地区显著,东部地区中介效应不显著的主要原因是产业结构升级影响消费增长这一路径发生阻滞导致。产生这一现象的主要原因是东部地区产业结构升级已经达到一定的高度,但是在推动消费升级上还存在一些结构错配问题。进一步使用科技经费支出作为调节变量对东部地区进行检验,检验结果发现科技经费对数字经济影响消费增长的作用具有正向调节作用,而且当科技经
Based on the background of the new development pattern of“dual circulation”,firstly,this article uses the backward inference method from the perspective of the integration of internal and external,and the combination of both sides of supply and demand to construct a theoretical and logical framework for the digital economy to drive consumption growth,that is,“the new development pattern of dual circulation←domestic circulation as the main body←expansion of domestic demand←supply and demand matching←industrial structural upgrading and innovation←digital economy”.Secondly,this paper selects data from 286 prefecture-level cities in China,uses cluster analysis to describe the level of digital economy development in each city and conducts a comparative analysis.It is found that there are obvious differences in the digital economy growth rate of cities at different levels.The digital economy index level of the first-tier cities of the digital economy is much higher than that of the other four-tier cities,but the growth rate of the fifth-tier cities of the digital economy far exceeds that of the first-tier cities.It can be seen from the fitting situation of the digital economy and consumption that the digital economy and consumption growth are positively correlated;the digital economy and industrial structure upgrading,industrial structure upgrading and consumption growth have a certain positive relationship,but the reality is that cities with a relatively high industrial structure optimization index have not clearly shown a corresponding good consumption momentum.The paper further establishes a moderated mediation effect model to empirically test the influence mechanism of the digital economy on consumption growth.The results show that from the full sample level,the overall effect of the digital economy on consumption growth is significantly positive,indicating that the digital economy can play a certain role in promoting consumption and stimulating domestic demand.In addition,the mediating effect of
作者
梁会君
LIANG Huijun(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,P.R.China;School of Economics,Henan Institute of Technology,Xinxiang 453003,P.R.China)
出处
《重庆大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期34-46,共13页
Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“一带一路区域价值链构建与中国产业转型升级研究”(18ZDA038)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“河南省跨境电商全产业链集聚演化机制及实现路径研究”(2020BJJ025)。
关键词
双循环
数字经济
消费增长
产业结构升级
中介效应
调节效应
dual circulation
digital economy
consumption growth
industrial structural upgrade
mediating effect
moderating effect
