摘要
加快建设和完善中国碳排放权交易市场是推动经济高质量发展、实现经济低碳转型的关键举措。为厘清碳交易政策的经济与减排效应,充分发挥全国碳市场在实现双碳目标中的基础性引领作用,构建考虑生产排放异质性特征的DSGE理论模型,在动态经济机制框架下开展碳交易政策的系统效应评价,研究发现,碳市场制度建设对中国经济系统变量长期稳态水平具有正向调控功效,经济结构得到相应改善,有利于牵引经济低碳转型;进一步利用2006—2018年中国282个地市级尺度数据,基于机制渠道、空间关联和政策协同等视角,实证检验了碳交易政策影响的作用路径与产生机理。结果表明,碳交易政策对试点地区碳减排有显著促进作用,且存在一定政策预期效应;政策主要通过提高能源利用效率和改进生产投入技术两条途径实现碳减排,但其政策空间溢出效应及能耗结构调整作用尚未得到有效释放,而碳减排经济政策的协调搭配是实现减污降碳协同效益的关键。基于研究结论,提出健全碳排放权市场交易制度和推进市场化机制建设的政策建议。通过事前评估和事后检验相结合的方式,为碳交易政策的宏观效应研究提供了系统测度框架。
Accelerating the construction and improvement of the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market is a key measure to promote high-quality economic development and achieve low-carbon economic transformation.Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is construct to evaluate long-term economy and environment performance effect of Emissions Trading under dynamic economic mechanisms.The results show that,Emissions Trading has significant positive impact on long-term static level of major economic fundamental indicators in China,the economic structure has also been correspondingly improved,boosting low-carbon economic transformation.Further utilizing data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2018 are applied to analyze the emissions reduction effect and mechanism of Emissions Trading under multi-period difference-in-difference framework and the emissions reduction effect of Emissions Trading is verified significantly.Emissions Trading policies have a significant promoting effect on emissions reduction in pilot areas;Policies improve energy efficiency and input side of production,and then reduce the emissions.However,the spillover effect and adjustment effect on energy consumption structure is not fully released.The synergy of policies is the key to realize synergetic benefits of pollution and emissions reduction.The possible marginal contributions here are reflected in three aspects:firstly,adopt both pre-evaluation and ex-post evaluation method,offering systematic measurement framework for the emissions reduction effect and mechanism of Emissions Trading.Second,based on the structural decomposition accounting framework,the contribution of various economic factors to emission reduction in emission trading pilot areas is investigated,and the empirical analysis framework is provided to systematically explain the relevant mechanisms of emission reduction policies.Thirdly,based on China's prefecture level economic and emission accounting data,a spatial panel econometric model is used to test the emission
作者
程郁泰
肖红叶
CHENG Yutai;XIAO Hongye(School of Statistics,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China;School of Economics,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
北大核心
2023年第7期61-74,共14页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
天津市哲学社会科学规划项目一般项目“IO-SDA模型解读与京津冀碳排放结构分解测度研究”(TJTJ18-004)。
关键词
碳排放权交易
低碳经济转型
能源效率
能耗结构
空间溢出
政策协同
carbon emission trading policy
low-carbon economic transformation
energy structure
energy efficiency
spatial spillover
policy coordination
