摘要
人口老龄化是我国社会发展的重要趋势,对我国经济增长和地方政府债务风险造成了深刻影响。本文旨在探讨人口老龄化对地方债务风险的影响,并基于动态随机一般均衡框架进行了理论推演和数值模拟,分析其影响机制。研究发现:老龄化不仅会导致养老金支出增加,使地方政府债务规模和负债率上升,还会降低劳动供给和经济增长,进一步加剧地方政府债务风险。但从长期来看,老龄化对经济增长的负面影响会逐渐减弱,经济增长会回归稳态水平,地方政府债务风险也会有所缓解。本文建议:加快养老金制度改革,同步推进多层次多支柱养老金体系建设;积极构建老龄化趋势下的经济发展新动能,以降低地方债务负担,缓解地方债务风险;做好老龄化背景下的地方债务管理,合理控制财政支出水平,特别是养老金支出,缩小赤字规模。
Population aging is an important trend in China's social development,which has a profound impact on China's economic growth and local government debt risk.This paper aims to explore the impact of population aging on local debt risk and conducts theoretical derivations and numerical simulations based on a dynamic sto⁃chastic general equilibrium framework to analyze its impact mechanism.It is found that aging not only leads to an increase in pension expenditure,which increases the size and indebtedness of local government debt,but also re⁃duces labor supply and economic growth,further aggravating the risk of local government debt.However,in the long run,the negative impact of aging on economic growth will gradually diminish,economic growth will return to steady-state levels,and the risk of local government debt will be mitigated.This paper recommends:accelerating the reform of pension system and simultaneously promoting the construction of multi-level and multi-pillar pen⁃sion system;actively constructing new dynamics of economic development under the trend of aging in order to re⁃duce local debt burden and mitigate local debt risk;doing a good job of local debt management in the context of ag⁃ing,and reasonably controlling the level of fiscal expenditure,especially pension expenditure,so as to reduce the size of deficit.
作者
竹志奇
高珂
任金凤
Zhu Zhiqi;Gao Ke;Ren Jinfeng
出处
《西南金融》
北大核心
2023年第6期3-17,共15页
Southwest Finance
基金
天津市哲学社会科学规划(青年)项目“老龄化背景下天津社保缴费减免政策的稳增长效应及其优化路径研究”(TJYJQN22-004)资助。
关键词
人口老龄化
经济增长
地方政府债务
养老金
劳动供给
人口红利
养老保障
财政支出
population aging
economic growth
local government debt
pensions
labor supply
demographic dividend
pension security
fiscal spending
