摘要
长时间序列的代用资料表明,地球气候系统存在着数百年时间尺度的气候变率.这种变率产生的原因及机制一直是困扰气候学家和考古学家的重大科学问题.从全新世中期直至工业革命之前,地球所受的外强迫变化较小,研究这一时期气候系统的长期自然振荡非常重要.本文从观测、理论和模拟研究3个方面对多百年际气候变率的研究现状进行了详细梳理.我们期望能够通过创新性的理论和模式试验方法,勾画多百年际气候变率的空间模态,解密其时间尺度来源,揭示其内在运行机理,取得原创性成果,回答海洋动力学和气候动力学的一些基础科学问题.
Research using long-term proxy data suggests the existence of multi-centennial climate variability in the Earth’s climate system.Its origin and mechanism have been bewildering for climatologists and archaeologists for a long time.Considering that the variation of external forcing of the Earth’climate was relatively small from the mid-Holocene to the pre-industrial time,it is important to investigate the role of internal natural oscillation of the climate system during this period.The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC)is thought to be the first candidate for such multi-centennial timescale variability.It is thus critical to investigate systematically the connection between the AMOC and the Earth climate system at this timescale.From the mid-Holocene to the pre-industrial time,the human civilization experienced rapid development.Historical documents in China suggest that in the past 2000 years,the historical climate in China had a low-frequency variation with 200–300 year period,which might have affected the ancient Chinese civilization.The multi-centennial variability of the AMOC may have played a role in the vax and vane of the human civilization.Currently,there is a lack of in-depth studies on the multi-centennial variability of the AMOC.This is mainly due to the following factors.First,the time period of modern instrumental observations is less than 200 years,which is not long enough to confirm the existence of the multi-centennial climate variability.Second,there is a lack of a well-recognized theory that can account for the multi-centennial variability of the AMOC.Third,it is much easier for a researcher to study the Earth climate change due to external forcing than to study the internal variability of the Earth climate system under a stable external forcing,particularly at this long timescale.Several coupled Earth climate system models have simulated the multi-centennial variability of the AMOC.However,the results from both coupled models and proxy data include comprehensive factors.To f
作者
杨海军
石佳琪
李洋
周湘莹
Qiong Zhang
Haijun Yang;Jiaqi Shi;Yang Li;Xiangying Zhou;Qiong Zhang(Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China;Shanghai Scientific Frontier Base for Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction Studies,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,School of Physics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Department of Physical Geography,Stockholm University,Stockholm 10691,Sweden)
出处
《科学通报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第16期2037-2045,共9页
Chinese Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(42230403,41725021)资助。
关键词
多百年际气候变率
自然振荡
代用资料
空间模态
时间尺度
multi-centennial climate variability
natural oscillation
proxy data
spatial pattern
timescale
